Date: Wednesday, July 23
Distance: 160km
Start location: Bollène
Finish location: Valence
Start time: 13:35 CEST
Finish time: 17:10 CEST (approx)
If the riders look towards the west while riding today’s stage, they will see the many peaks of the Massif Central. To the east, they’re dwarfed by the even more imposing high mountains of the Alps. But today they’ll avoid all those mountains, instead sticking to the flat (and only occasionally rolling) roads of the Rhône Valley. This area is known for its wine, especially the Côtes du Rhône, made from the grenache grape, which flourishes in the hot, dry conditions of this area, and known for its spicy, smokey and high in alcohol content.
The stage will start in Bollène, a town on the Rhône river that has never before been visited by the Tour de France, but has featured in several editions of Paris-Nice. Whereas that race is known as the Race to the Sun for its southern trajectory towards the Côte d'Azur, this stage takes the riders in reverse for a finish in Valence, situated further north up the Rhône. Known as ‘the door to the South of France’ for its location as a gateway to Provence, today it will instead provide a way out, and closer to the Alps, where the race will venture into tomorrow.
Before that venture into the high mountains, today provides one last chance for a sprint finish. That’s been the outcome in all three of the last times a Tour stage has finished in Valence this past decade; and every time the result has gone according to the form book, with the winner claiming their third stage win of that edition each time. In 2015 it was André Greipel who continued the most successful Tour of his career, holding off John Degenkolb and Alexander Kristoff on the line; Kristoff was again the rider to miss out in 2018 when he was passed by Peter Sagan at the line, for what was a rare pure bunch sprint win for the Slovakian. And in 2021 it was, you guessed it, Mark Cavendish, who was victorious, making Valence the fifth town at this year’s Tour along with Paris, Toulouse, Carcassonne and Châteauroux (three times) that the Manx Missile has left his imprint with a Tour stage win.
All these stage wins came despite rolling terrain, and there are some undulations in the route today to give the breakaway hope of surviving. The first third of the stage is mostly uphill, reaching a highest point of 632m above sea level atop the category three Col du Pertuis. And there’s another categorised hill 43km from the finish, the 3.6km, 3.5% Col de Tartaiguille. But the flat final run-in to the finish from there should set up a bunch sprint finish — and one that might, given the hillier new look of the Parisian final, be the last of this year’s Tour.
Contenders
On paper, this stage should favour the sprinters, but with a lumpy section of the stage and tired legs this deep into the Tour, controlling a strong breakaway could prove difficult. Teams may struggle to keep things together, especially if the break contains quality riders who can climb and time trial.
Among the sprinters, Biniam Girmay (Intermarché–Wanty) stands out as someone who can handle undulating terrain, though he hasn't quite found the winning form he showed last year. Kaden Groves (Alpecin–Deceuninck) is more of a traditional sprinter but has shown he can survive rolling stages and could be a threat if the bunch is still intact at the finish. With Mathieu van der Poel out of the race, the team might now decide to control a break rather than contribute to it.
Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) and Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step) are the two fastest sprinters in the race, but both will need to show better form in staying towards the front of the race on hectic days. Should they do so, they will be the two favourites to contest the stage victory.
Milan is the better climber of the two, though Lidl-Trek have not been able to control the break formation lately, and this has meant Milan's green jersey is under threat from Tadej Pogačar. Instead of more controlling, they may prefer to back their more versatile puncheurs such as Quinn Simmons, Thibau Nys, or Jasper Stuyven in the breakaway, depending on how the race unfolds.
EF Education–EasyPost have targeted stages like this and riders like Kasper Asgreen, Harry Sweeney and Neilson Powless are well-suited to this kind of unpredictable stage and could feature in a dangerous move.
Arnaud De Lie (Lotto) will hope to be up there if it comes down to a sprint. Expect other teams to hedge their bets by sending strong riders up the road. Breakaway contenders include Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility), Fred Wright (Bahrain Victorious), Louis Barré (Intermarché–Wanty), Axel Laurence (Ineos Grenadiers), Victor Campenaerts (Visma-Lease a Bike), Pascal Eenkhoorn (Soudal-Quickstep), and Alexey Lutsenko (Astana Qazaqstan).
Prediction
We believe stage 17 is too good an opportunity for Jonathan Milan and Lidl-Trek to slip away, both for the stage win and the green jersey competition.
