Date: Wednesday 3 September
Distance: 157km
Start location: Bilbao
Finish location: Bilbao
Start time: 13:30 CEST
Finish time: 17:20 CEST
As the workings of the world economy has changed, so has Bilbao. It was founded in the late thirteenth century as a city of trade, making use of its location as a port on the Bay of Biscay to export its specialities of wool and iron all over Europe. In the nineteenth century it embraced industrialisation, with steelmaking industries flourishing. And most recently, in the post-industrial era, it has pivoted to services and tourism, a regeneration process epitomised by the instantly recognisable Guggenheim museum.
Throughout it all, Bilbao has maintained its identity as Basque. It’s both the capital and largest city of the Basque Country, and the modern day epicentre of a culture that has persevered for millennia. It’s especially defined by its unique language, the only language in Europe that belongs to its own distinct language family that is without a relation to any other, which survived being banned by the fascist Franco dictatorship, and has in the years since become increasingly spoken again.
Geographically, the Basque Country is characterised by its many hills and rolling terrain, which the Vuelta a España has made full use of today for a demanding stage that features a grand total of seven categorised climbs. None of them are either especially long or especially steep, though, all designated a category three rating. The sole exception is Alto del Vivero, a category two effort that will be tackled twice, 52km and 40km from the finish. Located nearby to the east of Bilbao, this hill is familiar from almost every visit to the Basque Country every Vuelta first returned in 2011, yet despite its steep gradients averaging 8.3% for 4.2km, its impact on the GC race has been limited. Alberto Contador tried an attack here in 2016, while Chris Froome attempted to dislodge the red jersey Juan José Cobo in 2011, but neither succeeded, and the GC favourites all finished together in sizable groups.
Such attacks might bear more fruit today, however, thanks to an additional climb included after Alto del Vivero, just 8km from the finish: Alto de Pike. This 2.3km climb featured at the end of the opening stage of the 2023 Tour de France during Bilbao’s Grand Départ, and its 8.9% average gradient reduced the group peloton to little more than a dozen riders, from which twins Adam and Simon Yates attacked to take first and second respectively. This stage looks even harder, too, with two ascents of the Vivero rather than just the one preceding it. While the breakaway will still fancy their chances of succeeding (as it has for three of the last four Bilbao finishes at the Vuelta, Igor Antón, Philippe Gilbert and Marc Soler all triumphing) it’ll be climbers rather than puncheurs who’ll shine on this route; and in the group of favourites, attacks might this time result in time gains.
Contenders
Mads Pedersen and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) are well suited to this kind of explosive terrain. Ciccone won the recent Donostia San Sebastian Klasikoa in August on similar parcours to stage 10.
Tom Pidcock (Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team) has been building well into the race and this sort of terrain is well-suited to his punchy attributes. However, wherever he goes, he will be followed by the likes of the red jersey holder and overall favourite Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), and João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG). Stage three winner David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) who could use his punch to win from a select group.
After the controversial public fallout between Juan Ayuso and his UAE team, it's hard to tell how the Spaniard will race the rest of the Vuelta. But if he got away on the climbs around Bilbao, he would be very hard to chase back, especially with his descending ability.
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Alongside Pedersen and Ciccone, Lidl-Trek also have Julien Bernard in their squad who was impressive on stage 10. The Frenchman could be allowed to go in the break again on stage 11. Other breakaway riders include Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) and Pablo Castrillo and Javier Romo (Movistar Team), who have been active in the race so far. Other riders who may look to get into the day's break include Eddie Dunbar (Jayco Alula), Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), Victor Campenaerts (Visma-Lease a Bike).
The stage is probably too hard for the likes of Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Iván García Cortina and Orluis Aular (Movistar), Ethan Vernon and Jake Stewart (Israel-Premier Tech) and Ben Turner (Ineos Grenadiers). But the sprinters could have their chance if the climbs are raced passively.
Prediction
We think Lidl-Trek will try and control the day to set up Mads Pedersen for the stage win.
