Date: Wednesday, July 9
Distance: 33km Individual Time Trial
Start location: Caen
Finish location: Caen
Start time: 13:10 CEST
Finish time: 17:42 CEST (approx.)
We’re in Normandy for stage five, one of cycling’s heartlands where the sport has long been held in great esteem and popularity. More specifically, this stage is held in Calvados, where you’ll find many an orchard growing the apples this area is famous for, used to make its signature cider and brandy, made from distilled cider. And as anyone who was paying attention during primary school history lessons will know, Normandy was the origin of the powerful Norman Duchy, which successfully invaded England in 1066 under William the Conqueror.
William the Conqueror is now buried in Caen, the city which the riders will set off from and, 33km later, return to for today’s time trial. It's a historic city, which this year celebrates its 1000th anniversary, but stands out from others in Normandy for its more modern buildings, having had to be extensively rebuilt after being badly bombed during World War II. The Tour used to visit regularly back in the 1950s and 1960s during that time of rebuilding, but it’s fallen out of fashion lately, and hasn’t featured at the Tour de France since a bunch sprint won by Óscar Freire in 2006.
The fact that that stage ended in a sprint indicates how flat the roads are around here, and indeed today’s time trial features barely a speed bump for the riders to climb. There are a few twists and turns as the riders leave and later renter Caen, but there are plenty of long, straight sections for the specialists to really lay the power down. At 33km, it’s also longer than time trials tend to be this early in a Grand Tour — in fact, it’s longer than any opening week individual time trial at the Tour since a 41.5km stage in Doubs 2012, when Bradley Wiggins stormed to a victory that put him nearly two minutes ahead on GC.
This stage is therefore an opportunity for one of the GC favourites to lay a similar foundation for their yellow jersey bid. Looking back at recent Tours, it's most comparable to stage five of the 2021 edition, when Tadej Pogačar strengthened his title defence with a stage win, putting 43 seconds into his main rival Primož Roglič. Last month’s similarly flat stage of the Critérium du Dauphiné was half the length, and saw Remco Evenepoel put 20 seconds into Jonas Vingegaard and 48 seconds into Pogačar; we can perhaps extrapolate that gaps today will be twice as big.
It won’t be as race-defining as the 2023 time trial to Combloux when the deadlock between Vigegaard and Pogačar was broken by a huge, 1:38 victory for the former, nor the famous day to La Planche des Belles Filles at the end of the 2020 Tour, when Pogačar so dramatically overturned a deficit of a minute to take the yellow jersey from Primož Roglič. But, with no other flat time trial in this year’s race, this is still an important stage where crucial time can be gained and lost.
Contenders
Last year's flat time trial stage winner Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick‑Step) is the favourite again this year. A two-time world and Olympic TT champion, Evenepoel has the power and aero prowess to make him the preeminent candidate for the stage win.
However, the other GC favourites Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) are both Tour time trial winners and are never far off the pace. Vingegaard's three teammates, Matteo Jorgenson and Wout van Aert — a multiple Tour time trial winner — are both capable of finishing high up on the results.
Former Olympic champion Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora‑Hansgrohe) could upset the top favourites too, if he can show some of his prior form.
With no Filippo Ganna, after crashing out on stage one, Ineos Grenadiers will look to Geraint Thomas to roll back the years and claim a time trial stage, while other dark horses include Mattia Cattaneo (Soudal Quick-Step), Stefan Küng (Groupama–FDJ) and Edoardo Affini (Visma–Lease a Bike).
Prediction
We think Remco Evenepoel will banish the bad luck he has suffered so far at this Tour and take the individual time trial win.
