Date: Tuesday, July 8
Distance: 174km
Start location: Amiens
Finish location: Rouen
Start time: 13:15 CEST
Finish time: 17:22 CEST (approx.)
As well as being home to the biggest cathedral in France, renowned around the world as one of the finest feats of Gothic architecture, the city of Amiens is also closely associated with the novelist Jules Verne. Verne lived here from 1871 until his death 34 years later, during which time he completed one of his great novels, Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Seas. Imagining a submarine manned by the intrepid Captain Nemo that ventures deep into the depths of the ocean, it was immensely popular and a pioneering work of sci-fi, and typified the adventurous spirit of Verne’s ‘Voyages extraordinaires’ series that featured similarly outlandish trips circumnavigate the globe (Around the World in 80 Days) and delving down underground into the bowels of the Earth (Journey to the Centre of the World).
From Amiens the riders will travel the (comparatively less laborious) roads south-westwards out of Hautes-France and into Normandy for a finish in Rouen, which is also home to one of France’s most impressive cathedrals (immortalised in a series of paintings by Claude Monet), and another of France’s great 19th Century novelists: Gustave Flaubert. Whereas Verne’s novels were all about the excitement and thrills of adventures in exotic places, Flaubert wrote about boredom and the frustrations of provisional life, most famously in Madame Bovary, where the heroine tries in vain to overcome the disappointments of her banal life.
Will stage four of the Tour de France resemble the thrills of a Verne novel, or the inertia of Flaubert’s characters? It more closely resembled the latter when Rouen last hosted a stage finish at the 2012 Tour de France, a bunch sprint won by André Greipel that was a sleepy affair, at least until a late mass crash 2.5km from the finish that took out, among others, Mark Cavendish. But the much hillier parcours of this year’s stage should ensure there’s a lot more action and excitement this time around.
Though unlikely to produce GC action of the kind commemorated by a monument to Jean Robic passed today just outside of Rouen (marking the spot where, in 1947, he dramatically went against Tour etiquette to attack Pierre Brambilla’s yellow jersey on the final day of the race, successfully gazumping him to take overall victory) there are enough hills in the finale to prompt plenty of attacks, from both puncheurs chasing the stage win and GC riders looking to gain seconds. All five of the day’s categorised climbs are concentrated in the final 50km, with the final three coming with less than 20km to go, the last and antepenultimate of which contain steep enough gradients (both 900m, long and respectively averaging 10.6% and 7.2%) for the most explosive riders to go clear. Those teams who want to control the race for a group sprint at the near-uphill finish (that climbs for 500m at 5% before levelling out for the final few hundred metres) are up against it.
Contenders
Stage two's finish provided a likely script for what might await on stage four's punchy finish in Rouen. Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin‑Deceuninck) defends the yellow jersey with swagger after sprinting to victory in Boulogne-sur-Mer on Sunday. His explosive power and Classics nous make him the rider to beat on rolling terrain and technical finales. Despite Alpecin's great success at the start of this Tour, they lost their sprinter and stage one winner Jasper Philipsen on Monday, and in the Belgian's absence, they will want to continue their winning ways with Van der Poel.
As often is the case on punchy finishes, Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates‑XRG) was the fastest GC finisher on stage two and will be itching to strike on similar punchy ramps — plus he’s backed by strong lieutenants like João Almeida, Jhonatan Narváez and polka dot jersey Tim Wellens, who were all impressive in their support work on Sunday.
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) rode aggressively in the select group on stage two's climbs. The Dane’s solidity on the climbs, crosswinds and finishes makes him a favourite despite the race being hundreds of miles from his favoured mountain terrain.
A local rider, Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa‑B&B) showed a lot of willing and power on stage two and on home roads in Normandy, he could animate once more. Similarly, Vingegaard's teammate Matteo Jorgenson has shown strong form in the Tour already; the all‑rounder's punch and time‑trial pedigree make him a wildcard if the race splinters. Another Visma rider, Wout van Aert was on domestique duties on stage two but perfectly built for this terrain — rolling roads, potential echelon chaos, and a fast finish.
The sprinters will have a tough time surviving the climbs to contest the finish. Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) is the most versatile sprinter now that Philipsen is out of the race, but stage four is likely to be too challenging for last year's green jersey winner.
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step), Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor), Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ), Oscar Onley (Team Picnic PostNL), Aurélien Paret-Peintre (Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale Team), Neilson Powless and Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost), Mattias Skjelmose and Thibau Nys (Lidl-Trek), are all capable of launching on short climbs and contesting reduced bunch sprints.
Prediction
We think Mathieu van der Poel will win his second stage of this year's Tour
