Date: Sunday, July 27
Distance: 132km
Start location: Mantes-la-Ville
Finish location: Paris
Start time: 16:10 CEST
Finish time: 19:26 CEST
After last year’s finish in Nice, the finale of the Tour de France returns to its usual location of Paris — but not quite as we know it. The sights of the Eiffel Tower, the Arc de Triomphe, the Louvre and the Place de la Concorde will all, as ever, greet the riders as they enter the capital, where they will also embark on the traditional circuit culminating in the finishing straight along the Champs-Élysées boulevard. Only this time, for the last three of those six laps, the riders will take a new detour to the north of town, up to the Montmartre hill that was the centrepiece of the Olympics road race last year.
The Parisian finale is therefore no longer the sprinters’ procession it has been for so many decades, with the three ascents of this hill providing a chance for attackers to break clear and deny the usually inevitable bunch finish. This change feels in keeping with modern cycling, which offers fewer and fewer chances for pure sprinters. Mark Cavendish, the record holder for the most number of wins on the Champs-Élysées with four, said last year that he doesn’t believe he’d be able to make it as a professional if starting out in this new landscape of cycling. Even the sacrosanct Paris stage, so long known informally as the ‘sprinters world championships’, has been compromised.
The Côte de la Butte Montmartre is the climb that could spoil the party for the sprinters. It’ll be tackled three times in the final 40km, the last time just 8km from the finish, which isn’t too many kilometres to last for any attackers who do manage to have a gap going over the top to maintain. At the Olympics last year, Remco Evenepoel used the 5.9% gradients of the 1.1km, cobbled climb to help lay down the hammer and build the lead that saw him solo to victory and the gold medal.
There is still hope for the sprinters, however. The three ascents of the Montmartre that day were preceded by ten earlier classified climbs, plus many more uncategorised rises, all in a race that was over twice the length of today’s. This race won’t be as selective, and the sprinters will be fresher by the time they arrive at the climb. If their teams are organised enough to control attacks, and if they’re still able to climb well enough this deep into the race, they could yet add their name to the list of legendary sprinters to have won on the iconic Champs-Élysées finish.
Contenders
14 teams have not won a stage at this year's Tour. Sunday's finale is obviously their last chance to do so. However, fatigue has set in, meaning it's no easy task.
The last time the Tour finished in Paris in 2023, there was a surprise winner when Jordi Meeus (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) took the biggest victory of his career. He is not an outright favourite for this year's finale, as like the other sprinters, Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep) and Arnaud de Lie (Lotto), he will struggle to hold onto the pace up the Montmartre climbs.
Montmartre is hard enough and its final ascent comes so close to the finish, meaning only a rider who can climb well will be able to compete. Classics riders like Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) and Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) could feature but both haven't shown the kind of stage winning form of past years. Nevertheless they could spring a surprise, and if a group came to the final few kilometres, their stock would rise. Outside of Van Aert, Visma also have a few options through their strong Classics riders like Victor Campenaerts, Matteo Jorgenson and Tiesj Benoot.
Could stage 20 winner Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) could make it back-to-back wins? He can climb well and is showing some serious strength this late into the race.
The yellow jersey himself Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) could look to claim a famous win in Paris — although he has seemed reluctant to hunt stages at the latter half of the race. Within his team there are a number of options, including Tim Wellens, who won stage 15, and Jhonatan Narváez.
Other contenders are Julian Alaphilippe and Matteo Trentin (Tudor Procycling), Jasper Stuyven and Quinn Simmons (Lidl-Trek), Fred Wright and Matej Mohorič (Bahrain-Victorious), Axel Laurance (Ineos Grenadiers), Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ), who crashed on stage 20, Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X Mobility), Kasper Asgreen and Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost).
Prediction
We think Jhonatan Narváez will on the Champs-Élysées, taking the first Tour stage of his career.
