Date: Sunday, July 20
Distance: 169km
Start location: Muret
Finish location: Carcassonne
Start time: 13:20 CEST
Finish time: 17:08 CEST
At last, some relief from the mountains. The final stage of the second week takes the riders away from the Pyrenees and further east, starting in the town of Muret and travelling through Occitanie before arriving at the finish in Carcassonne. Famous for its grand medieval citadel, which was restored in the nineteenth century to grand effect, Carcassonne is a hot spot both for tourists, who flock here in their millions each year, and the Tour de France, which is paying its fourth visit in eight years.
The German designer Klaus-Jürgen Wrede was so taken by Carcassonne that he was inspired to make and name a tile-based game after it, one that helped usher in the 21st century renaissance of board games. Players take turns to place tiles that mimic the citadel’s extensive network of walls, towers and roads, collecting points by completing geographical features such as a city or a field. It’s a game that rewards finding the right balance between short-term points scoring, and playing the long game.
Riders hoping to win today’s stage could pick up some tips from Carcassonne’s gameplay, on a hilly parcours that looks very promising for breakaway success. Winning from a breakaway requires a similar balance between thinking in both the short and long-term, and is often as much about strategy as it is superior legs. First, wannabe stage winners have to pick the right move to get into to form the definitive day’s break. The opening 70km are on undulating and flat roads, which should allow heavier rouleurs to get up the road, though if the battle to form the break is still raging by the 6.2km, 5.5% Côte de Sorèze, lighter puncheurs could instead be the ones to come to the fore.
Whenever the break is ultimately formed, the next task is to work together with the other riders in the group to fend off the peloton and ensure the break is not brought back for a sprint, which today remains a distinct possibility. Although there are hills to be climbed up, the parcours isn’t tough enough to discount the sprinters, whose teams might be eager and willing to chase given there’s a rest day tomorrow. And the last two finishes in Carcassonne have both ended in bunch sprints, Jasper Philipsen claiming the first of his nine Tour stage wins in 2022, and Mark Cavendish the 34th of his 35 the year before.
Yet those in the breakaway need also remember that there can only be one winner, and the same allies they work with against the peloton will eventually become enemies. They’ll need to hold back enough to have energy left in the tank for the finale, and pick the right moment to attack — which today would seem likely to be somewhere up the 10.2% slopes of the 2.9km Pas du Sant, crested just under 50km from the finish, or the 20km of continued, shallower climbing that follows after it. With most of the subsequent roads downhill rather than flat, the terrain is conducive to solo attackers, so the smart move might be to make a move sooner rather than later.
Contenders
The most likely outcome of this stage will be a breakaway. With its rolling terrain, mid-race ramps, stage 15 means only the sprinters who can climb will have a chance, the two who come to mind are Biniam Girmay (Intermarché–Wanty) and Kaden Groves (Alpecin–Deceuninck), with both Jonathan Milan (Lidl‑Trek) and Tim Merlier (Soudal‑Quick‑Step) and their teams really having their work cut out to survive the Pas du Sant to contend a sprint finish.
Grove's teammate Mathieu van der Poel, who’s shown he can succeed from both select bunch finishes and breakaways, is a heavy favourite for the stage, especially after a few quiet days in the Pyrenees. It could be that Alpecin decide to put Van der Poel in the break rather than control the stage for Groves.
Similarly, Lidl‑Trek may instead deploy puncheurs like Quinn Simmons, Thibau Nys, or Jasper Stuyven to go in the break, especially after Mattias Skjelmose had to abandon on stage 13.
EF Education‑EasyPost's Ben Healy now seems to be going for an overall top 10 result. But they have riders like Kasper Asgreen and Neilson Powless who suit a rolling finale like this.
Several squads are likely to aim for the breakaway: Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Mauro Schmid (Jayco Alula), Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ), Davide Ballerini (XDS Astana), Magnus Cort (Uno‑X Mobility), Fred Wright (Bahrain‑Victorious), Louis Barré (Intermarché‑Wanty), Axel Laurence and Samuel Watson (Ineos Grenadiers). Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X Mobility) recently achieved his dream of winning a Tour stage, delivering Uno‑X’s first-ever victory in the race, despite recovering from a fractured clavicle just weeks earlier.
Prediction
We think Quinn Simmons will take stage 15 from the breakaway.
