Date: Friday July 19, 2024
Distance: 145km
Start location: Embrun
Finish location: Isola 2000
Start time: 12:20 CET
Finish time (approx): 16:28 CET
The last few days have teased sights of the massive Alpine summits, and sampled some of the lower slopes, but today is the day when things get serious, and the riders are confronted with the harrowing prospect of the High Alps. At last, 17 days after taking on the Col du Galibier, the riders complete their loop around France, and return to the mountain range where the climactic phase of the race for the yellow jersey will take place.
The theme of stage 19 will be high altitude. All three of the day’s climbs peak at over 2,000m above sea level, posing a different kind of challenge to the riders still in GC contention. Riding for so long up such steep gradients is hard enough in its own right; to do so this high in heavens, gasping for breath in an atmosphere where you can never quite seem to fill your lungs up, is another matter altogether. Their first taste of this thin air will come towards the summit of the Col de Vars, a giant slog of a climb that lasts just short of 20km. The gradient of about 6% that follow a plateau halfway up the climb is modest compared with the 7.8% during the first 7km, but won’t feel that way at such high altitude.
This is a very hard climb, yet still pales in comparison with what comes next. The Cime de la Bonette is a true monster of a mountain, towering up in the sky as the road in all of France, an enormous 2,800m above sea level. The riders will reach 2,000m after climbing for about 10km at a difficult gradient of 6.8%, and from there they still have to climb for a whole extra 13km before reaching the summit, at pretty much the same steepness. It’s the kind of climb that could break even riders who up until now have seemed unbreakable, and its effect on the yellow jersey race could be seismic.
The one mitigating factor that could neutralise its impact is the long descent and valley road leading to the start of the next climb, Isola 2000, as the riders may determine that it's worth waiting for that climb to make a move. The same combination of climbs was used in a stage of the 1993 Tour de France, on which occasion Tony Rominger waited until the latter climb to attack, winning the stage but failing to drop yellow jersey Miguel Indurain. A little shorter than the preceding climbs at 16.1km, the Isola is still the longest mountain top finish of this Tour de France, and rises at a similarly steep gradient of 7.1%. Considering all the climbing that’s already come before it, we can expect seriously big time gaps.
Route profile sourced via ASO
Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) will be without doubt a favourite for the stage win. He has looked on simply another level throughout this race compared to his rivals, leading the general classification by over three minutes. Pogačar has won three stages so far, looking cool, calm and collected with every win. He has looked confident on the longer mountain stages, even in the heat, but this is a testing day in the Alps. Thankfully, Pogačar is supported by a strong field of climbers such as João Almeida, Marc Soler, and Adam Yates.
Sitting in second on the GC is defending champion Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike). He is a pure climber and in previous Tours de France, where he has gotten the better of Pogačar, this is the kind of stage he demolishes. However, we haven’t seen the same clinical Vingegaard this race and this boils down to the fact that the team doesn’t boast the pure climbers it has had before with only Matteo Jorgenson able to protect Vingegaard in the mountains. We expect Vingegaard to try something if he can, he is the reigning champion and won’t want to settle for anything else.
The Dane will have to keep an eye on Remco Evenepoel (Soudal–Quick-Step), who now sits within two minutes of him. He has looked strong in this race, pacing his efforts and riding consistently well in the mountains. In the closing kilometres of stage 17, Evenepoel managed to drop both Pogačar and Vingegaard, which will be a real confidence boost going into these monster stages that remain.
Beyond the big three riders currently filling the podium spots, Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain-Victorious), and Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) are all capable to riding to a stage victory. They are all within the top-10 on GC, albeit Gall who is in 11th place, however, he’ll want to crack the top 10 and will use a stage like this to put his rivals under pressure.
Outside of the general classification contenders, the pure climbers of the peloton will be fancying their chances on stage which features 4,512 metres of elevation. Romain Bardet (Team DSM-Fermenich PostNL) is one of the best climbers in the peloton and will try to secure a second stage win in his final Tour de France. Also for the French fans, Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) will give the fans someone to cheer about, as will Lenny Martinez (Groupama-FDJ), however, he has been quite quiet throughout this Tour.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education-Easypost) could look to add to his stage win, using the momentum from his recent victory. Movistar are still needing something from this race and Enric Mas is the team’s best bet. Oscar Onley (Team DSM-Fermenich PostNL) could also be an outside bet for the stage win.
Stage 19 winner prediction
It is hard to look beyond the yellow jersey wearer Tadej Pogačar and we think he'll make it a fourth stage victory at this race.
