Date: Thursday July 18, 2024
Distance: 180km
Start location: Gap
Finish location: Barcelonnette
Start time: 13:00 CET
Finish time (approx): 17:30 CET
When the riders set off from Gap today for the start of stage 18, they’ll follow the same path that Napoleon took when he marched on Paris in 1815. Having been exiled to the Mediterranean island Elba while the Bourbon king was restored to the French crown, Napoleon escaped with a tiny fleet and arrived onto mainland France a few days later, whereupon he navigated the Alps and picked up supportive troops along the way, before eventually reaching the capital on March 15 with an army big enough to take it. This return was doomed to be short lived, however, as the Seventh Coalition of European powers came together in resistance, leading to his definitive defeat at Waterloo.
As this year’s Tour de France enters its final days, many of the riders find themselves in a similar position to the emperor, embarking on one last campaign before they’re forced to admit defeat. Panic tends to set in this late into a Grand Tour, as many teams and riders fret about not having taken anything from the race yet. And with only two high mountain stages and a time trial to come, today is the last chance for the vast majority of the peloton to win a stage.
The fight to get into the day’s break will therefore be worthy of a Napoleonic battle, as scores of riders will throw everything at trying to get into it and thus put themselves in a position to contest for the stage win. The 6.3% slopes of the day’s first climb, the Col du Festre, 28km into the stage will be a useful springboard for puncheurs and climbers to get up the road, but might not be definitive, and the battle could still be raging when the route diverges from the Napoleonic Route and veers south-eastward instead. The race might not even have settled down by the time they reach the foot of Col de Manse (5.1km at 3.6%), over halfway into the stage, but the double-header of the Côte de Saint-Apollinaire and Côte des Demoiselles (3.6km at 5.4%) within the next 42km should see the race settle down.
None of these climbs are especially hard in their own right (all five of the day's climbs are ranked only category three), but together they amount to a considerable 3,100m elevation gain, making it difficult for the heavier riders to compete for the stage win. Even the finale, which has not been classified as a climb, consists of about 25km of false flat until the finish in Barcelonnette (a new venue for a Tour stage finish, renowned for its Mexican-style villas). We might still be skirting through and around the high Alps rather than over them, but this is still testing terrain.
Route profile sourced via ASO
Contenders
With two mountain stages remaining and one individual time trial, stage 18 is the last chance for many riders who are still searching for a stage win. We expect that it will be an aggressive stage from the start and with plenty of category three climbs littered throughout the stage, totalling 3,100 metres of elevation, the riders going for glory will need both strong climbing legs and a fast finish.
Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) could be a strong contender for the stage win. In the race so far, he has been contesting the sprint finishes, however, he is a powerful rider and will thrive on this type of terrain. But he may be tasked with riding in support of the team's GC contender, Jonas Vingegaard. His long-time rival Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), who has looked to have found some semblance of form once again while being a key lead out rider for Jasper Philipsen, could also fancy his chances here. The world champion looked strong in the breakaway ascending the Col du Tourmalet, and with a stage profile like this, we expect to see him try and get in the break once again.
Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) missed the final break on stage 17 and will want to make sure that doesn’t happen again on stage 18. He’s been one of the most active riders in this race and will still be dreaming of making it to the line first. His teammate Richard Carapaz has also put in a tremendous performance this year, getting better as the race has gone on. He wore the yellow jersey in the first week and secured a victory on stage 17, so with momentum in the team, EF Education will try and clinch a second stage victory before the end of the three-week race.
Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility) is another rider who has been very active in this race, but is yet to secure a stage win. He’ll be aiming to get into the break and could be a real contender if the break can make it all the way to the end in a small group. Stevie Williams (Israel-Premier Tech) also had a strong result on stage 17, but was just short of stage victory. He is a strong climber and on this type of terrain, will be a rider to watch.
Matej Mohorič (Bahrain-Victorious) could also aim for the stage win, as could Bob Jungels (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe). Anthony Turgis (TotalEnergies) already has a stage win at this race, having won on the rough stuff on stage nine, but two stage wins will be even better for his TotalEnergies team, and he boasts the abilities to be in the running for this stage. Oier Lazkano (Movistar), Toms Skujinš (Lidl-Trek) and Michael Matthews (Jayco Alula) all could celebrate victory in Barcelonnette.
Stage 18 winner prediction
We think Wout van Aert will take the stage victory.
