With just three stages remaining in this year’s Giro d’Italia, the race for the maglia rosa is delicately poised. UAE Team Emirates’ Isaac del Toro wears the pink jersey after a gutsy stage 17 victory, but the young Mexican faces a formidable final test in the high mountains, short on teammates and surrounded by experienced challengers. With Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) in resurgent form, Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike) lurking with intent, and dark horses like Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech) and Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) climbing into contention, the final days promise a dramatic conclusion. As the peloton braces for nearly 10,000 metres of climbing over two brutal stages, the question remains: can Del Toro hold on, or is the Giro about to fall into more experienced hands?
UAE Team Emirates-XRG
On the evidence of his stage 17 triumph, the pink jersey, Isaac del Toro is more than up for the defence required of the leader’s jersey. But for all its brilliance, there are some caveats to his win — earlier in the stage, he was dropped on the Mortirolo climb by not only Carapaz and Simon Yates but also a number of the GC group. His fightback shows his resolve is intact, but on stage 19’s 4,950 metres of elevation gain, over five categorised climbs, the Mexican faces his toughest challenge yet. What makes it harder is that he will be without two teammates, after Jay Vine and Juan Ayuso both abandoned in the last couple of days. Although the two riders were not much help for the maglia rosa recently due to their own struggles, the team now finds itself outnumbered by the full rosters of EF and Visma. If Del Toro is to win this Grand Tour, he will have to put in the best high mountain climbing performances of his short career so far.
EF Education-EasyPost
The man most likely to wrench the jersey from Del Toro is Richard Carapaz, who has been in full flight on a number of occasions in the past week or so, looking — and succeeding — to gain time whenever he can. Despite losing a handful of seconds to Del Toro on stage 17, Carapaz will be confident that, come the higher mountains and, crucially, the lack of rest between the ascents, he is showing the best form of all the GC contenders. Where the Ecuadorian has the advantage over the pink jersey is on the multi-climb, long mountain days, like the two tests to come. Although he didn’t gain the time he wanted from the attack on stage 17, he knows it was the second time in as many days that he has put the overall leader in difficulty when the road goes uphill. However, he also has to watch his back as Simon Yates, a similarly experienced rider, is not far behind and could steal a march on both the South Americans.
Visma-Lease a Bike
Simon Yates, like Carapaz, is a Grand Tour winner already, but unlike the Ecuadorian, he has not shown a willingness to risk losing this Giro in order to win it — yet. He may be playing the smart game, waiting patiently for the two hardest stages before showing his true form, but at the same time, he also can’t risk running out of days before launching an all-out move to topple Del Toro. A full squad around him should give him confidence, even if none of them are dedicated mountain domestiques. Despite this, Wout van Aert, Dylan van Baarle and Wilco Kelderman have all shown in the past they can do damage on Alpine tests and will be useful assets to send up the road to act as satellite riders. Yates, tragically lost the Giro in 2018 after cracking on the Colle delle Finestre — is he about to reverse the script and break the hearts of his competitors on the same mountain pass? That comes on Saturday, before then, there is plenty of challenging terrain on Friday’s stage for Yates to use — he won’t want to leave it too late.
Israel-Premier Tech
Sitting fourth on GC, Derek Gee is in the best position of his career going into the final three stages of a Grand Tour, and he currently looks to be in the top four on the long climbs behind Carapaz and Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and is arguably even better than Yates. He is within two minutes of the maglia rosa, so if any rider above him in the leaderboard were to crack, the podium is in reach for the Canadian. It is unlikely — although not impossible — that all three riders currently occupying the top steps, fall apart on the next two stages, allowing Gee to take the Giro crown himself. However, stranger things have happened at the Giro. You only have to look at the race’s history in the past decade and the exploits of Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Froome to know that a two-minute gap is surmountable at this stage, especially with the terrain that is coming up.
Other GC teams
When Primož Roglič was forced to abandon the race on stage 16, you would have forgiven the Red Bull team directors for thinking any success at this Giro had disappeared. However, this is not how they felt when Nico Denz won stage 18, and they also knew they had a gem among their ranks ready to step up on the GC, and so Giulio Pellizzari has risen up the rankings and looks to be one of the best climbers left in the field. He finds himself seventh overall and although he is more than five minutes down on the race lead, he is less than two minutes from Damiano Caruso’s fifth place.
The veteran Italian has also been impressive in the race. In contrast to the young, upcoming talent from his home country, Caruso has proven over the years that he can perform at Grand Tours. Despite Pellizzari and Caruso’s age gap, they are both stepping in to lead their teams after the pre-race designated leaders have dropped out of the running; Bahrain-Victorious had been backing Antonio Tiberi, who hasn’t been able to stay with the pace in the Alps. For Pellizzari to break into the top five, he would have to also leapfrog Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers), who has been one of the main animators of the race but appears to be losing his grip ever-so-slightly on his GC spot.
Whatever unfolds over the next two stages, the Giro d’Italia is set for a spectacular finale. With the pink jersey under siege, battle lines drawn in the high mountains, and a mix of youthful ambition and hardened experience in play, the race is set to deliver one final twist. Whether Del Toro holds firm or a new hero emerges from the chaos, the road to Rome promises drama, heartbreak, and glory in equal measure.
