The Giro d'Italia is no stranger to extreme weather – May in the Alps and Dolomites is notoriously unpredictable. In 1988, Andy Hampsten raced into a full whiteout on the Passo di Gavia to take charge of the maglia rosa. In 2021, Egan Bernal rode away from his rivals on Passo Giau in freezing rain, unobserved by television viewers as the conditions made it impossible for helicopters or the altitude plane that delivers TV pictures to fly. Cold, snow and rain are woven into the Giro's identity.

But in 2026, the thermometer is buried in the red.

An African anticyclone – a high-pressure weather system that carries scorching desert air from the Sahara into Europe – is forecast to continue into the third week of the Grand Tour. In central and northern Italy temperatures will reach 34°C.

Professional cyclists do heat training, both for its own physiological benefits and also in preparation for the sweltering heat at the Tour de France. The sight of a topless bloke running alongside the riders in July is commonplace at La Grande Boucle, less so at La Corsa Rosa.

So, as temperatures rise, who stands to climb up the overall classification?

Stage 14 to Pila gave the first indication of who fares better in the heat and who will be worried for the days ahead. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) scorched his way to his third stage win. As if the pre-race favourite didn’t need any more of a stranglehold on this Giro, Vingegaard certainly won’t mind the rising temperatures. He wouldn’t mind things cooling down either – at Paris-Nice in March, he suffered through the rain and cold to win stage four (while wearing a long pair of tights over his shorts and long sleeve jersey).

Read more: 'Machine' Jonas Vingegaard finally shows who's boss at the Giro d'Italia

Vingegaard’s closest rival, Felix Gall, was the winner of the gruelling queen stage of the 2023 Tour, which was a hot edition. Gall also tends to perform better as a Grand Tour progresses. For the third time at this Giro, the Austrian was the runner-up to Dane on a summit finish, and with his achilles heel of the time trial behind him, Gall is eyeing up his first Grand Tour podium finish.

Felix Gall was runner-up to Jonas Vingegaard for the third time at this Giro on stage 14 (Image: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

Stage 14 indicated who will likely challenge him. The Red Bull duo of Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari are looking set to continue their general classification bids. This was despite Pellizzari appearing to struggle on the earlier slopes of the climb to Pila. Hindley, from Perth, is well-used to the sort of temperatures and, like Gall, comes into his own in the final week of a Grand Tour. 

However, being from warmer climates, doesn’t necessarily mean a rider prefers racing in those conditions (and vice versa). Hindley’s fellow West Australian, Ben O’Connor, who has a proven track record of performing well in the wet and cold, struggled on the stage to Pila. The Jayco-AlUla rider was one of the first of the general classification riders to be dropped from the pace set by Visma. O’Connor started the day in fifth, having performed consistently across the first 13 days of racing. But on Saturday, he couldn’t cope with the oppressive tempo of the final climb after a day in Alpine heat, with very little shade, dropping three places on GC and now sitting 2:32 off the podium.

Ben O'Connor struggled on stage 14 (Image: Sara Cavallini/Getty Images))

Another rider known for thriving in the cold, Thymen Arensman (Netcompany-Ineos) rallied better than O’Connor and only lost one place on the overall classification as he was leapfrogged by Gall (from third to fourth) after losing 34 seconds to the Decathlon rider. Arensman will still have his eyes on the podium, especially if he can continue to put time into Afonso Eulálio (Bahrain-Victorious). But without a third week time trial, coupled with Gall’s superior climbing and the Red Bull riders on his heels, Arensman faces a tough task. 

After a fortnight of racing, the fight for the podium has yet to settle. It will likely be decided by the conditions – and with the Sahara blowing north, the Giro has never felt less like a May race.