Spring is nearly upon, and therefore so are the springtime World Tour stage races, with Paris-Nice kicking off a series of what are some of the most closely-fought and exciting events of the season.
Famously, Paris-Nice is nicknamed the Race to the Sun; but it is not the Race of the Sun. It is regularly affected and shaped by inclement conditions before arriving at the sunny idyll of Southern France, with achingly cold weather and crosswinds often a factor. Where many stage races are won and lost simply by who is best in the mountains and time trials, this is more of a race of attrition, with survival the name of the gain.
And though there is a tough summit finish of Auron (7.3km at 7.2%) on stage seven to deal with, as well as the more modest Uchon (8km at 4.5%) that stage four finishes atop, this year’s route is notable for just how many punchy climbs there are. Only one day (stage two) looks like one for the sprinters, with every other parcours decorated by short, steep hills that should draw out the puncheurs for the stage win, and GC contenders in a battle for time.
And then there is the long, 23.5km team time trial on stage three, one surely designed with the equivalent stage that the Tour de France will open with in Barcelona later this year. Riders will be heavily dependent on their teammates for success here.
CONTENDERS
JONAS VINGEGAARD
Making a slightly delayed start to a different kind of season, in which he will attempt the Giro / Tour double for the first time in his career, Jonas Vingegaard enters Paris-Nice as the favourite; as he does for pretty much every stage race he competes in that eternal rival Tadej Pogačar is missing from. But doing so will be far from straightforward, and it’s illustrative of just how complicated a race Paris-Nice is to win that it is the only WorldTour stage race the Dane has appeared at since 2022 that he has not won, last year crashing out while in second overall.
To put that right, he’ll have a strong team to support him. Though missing defending champion Matteo Jorgenson, Visma-Lease a Bike bring a line-up well-equipped to both protect him in tough conditions during the flat stages, and excel in the team time trial, featuring powerful heavyweights like Eduardo Affini, Victor Campanaerts and Bruno Armirail.
Read more: Aware of burnout, Jonas Vingegaard makes big changes: 'I have an energy I’ve not had for years'
Vingegaard makes his season debut at Paris-Nice (Image: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
JUAN AYUSO
Juan Ayuso’s transfer to Lidl-Trek has proven to be an immediate success, the Spaniard already delivering overall victory at the Volta ao Algarve against many of the elite stage racers he will again be up against at Paris-Nice. Ayuso has never ridden Paris-Nice before, but has all the attributes to excel here, and his victory at last year’s adjacent Tirreno-Adriatico (not to mention that success in Algarve) proves he’s not a slow starter to the season and has the form to compete during the spring. Lidl-Trek have invested a lot in his, and a support squad featuring climbers Mattias Skljelmose and Lennard Kämna, plus classics specialists Mathias Vacek and Toms Skujiņš, should provide all he needs.
Ayuso moved from UAE to Lidl-Trek in the off-season and won his first race with the team, the Volta ao Algarve (Image: Dario Belingheri/Getty Images)
OSCAR ONLEY
There was a time, back when they were still Team Sky, that Ineos Grenadiers would dominate Paris-Nice, winning six of the eight editions between 2012 - 2019, but since the turn of the decade they have been winless here. The hope is that the new signing of young talent Oscar Onley will help propel them back to both a stage race and Grand Tour force, and he’ll make his World Tour debut for the team at Paris-Nice. Onley has grand ambitions, and has already made a promising start to life at Ineos Grenadiers by fourth overall at the Volta ao Algarve.
Onley has started his life at Ineos strongly (Image: Getty Images)
LENNY MARTINEZ
While excitement among the French public for sensation Paul Seixas reaches fever pitch, Lenny Martinez is hoping to continue his development a little more shielded from the expectant gaze of the French public. The 22-year-old has shown flashes of brilliance these past few years but lacked consistency, typified by his performance at last year’s Paris-Nice, where he won the first uphill finish but faded out of GC contention. He has suggested that GC attempts might not be his priority but if he can avoid a bad day could find himself in contention regardless.
Read more: 'It's changed me as a man': Lenny Martinez – France’s Tour hope doing things his own non-French way
Martinez spent a number of days in the polka dot jersey at last year's Tour (Image: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
OTHER CONTENDERS
Though missing both Remco Evenepoel and Primož Roglič, Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe should still be a force to be reckoned with Aleksandr Vlasov and Dani Martínez, both of whom have made the podiums at past Paris Nice editions. As has David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), although his recent form has left much to be desired, unlike Harold Tejada (XDS-Astana), who should be considered a podium contender having finished fourth overall at the UAE Tour.
Given how time can so easily be los tin surprising places at Paris-Nice, it’s good to have back-up riders for GC, and Lidl-Trek have a strong other option in Mattias Skjelmose, and Ineos have two in Carlos Rodríguez and Kévin Vauquelin, who have both made decent stars to the season with second at the Tour de la Provence and fifth at Volta ao Algarve respectively.
The lack of flat stages is reflected in the absence of many big name sprinters, and those that are here are the versatile types who can compete on punchier terrain like Biniam Girmay (NSN). There will be plenty of stages that don’t end in even a reduced bunch sprint, with the likes of Mattias Vacek (Lidl-Trek), Matteo Trentin (Tudor Pro Cycling) and Ruta del Sol winner Iván Romeo (Movistar) all with the potential to win from an attack.
PREDICTION
Having made an exceptional start to the season, and with parcours he should flourish on, we’re backing Juan Ayuso to get the better of Jonas Vingegaard and co.
