“I am realistic enough that I will not keep the streak going forever.”
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech) has won three Paris-Roubaix titles on the trot. But in the lead up to the Monument, the defending champion fielded questions about one man only, Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG).
Let us not forget: Van der Poel is the Roubaix-record breaker. No other rider has three consecutive victories. Only two others (Tom Boonen and Roger De Vlaeminck) have won it four times.
Speaking to the media near Wevelgem, Van der Poel’s mind was across the border. In the last few years, it’s at France’s cobbled Classic, where he and Alpecin have shored up Monument success.
Is there doubt seeping into the defending champion’s mind? Or is that just an unfair projection? Blunt and at times bristly, Van der Poel is, and always has been, an athlete who prefers to let his ability speak for itself. He and his teammate, Jasper Philipsen, were keen to praise Pogačar, but also downplay any doubt about their own chances.
“From what we achieved in the past, it's a race that suits us very well. We have a strong team as well. It's a completely different race compared to Flanders,” said Philipsen.
The Pogačar problem
Last year we asked who was more likely to win all five Monuments, Van der Poel or Pogačar? It seems pretty obvious now. The Slovenian has since claimed Milan-Sanremo and Flanders (again). Paris-Roubaix is now the only race standing between him and a full set, raising the stakes of this year’s race significantly.
The noise surrounding Van der Poel this week has not been about the potential record-equalling fourth Roubaix title, but about a tactical decision at Flanders that divided opinion. At De Ronde, he rode in the finale alongside Pogačar, who then dropped him on the final ascent of Oude Kwaremont.
It appeared that Van der Poel had raced to Pogačar’s strengths, not his own – burning energy on terrain that would always end in the Slovenian's favour. But asked about it, Van der Poel wasn't buying it: "I don't think not riding with him would have changed the outcome of the race, or even would have given me a better chance to win.”
"Not riding along would also have been a bit anti-racing. Tadej and I are going to cross paths for years to come. It is better that we get along well."
But does that tactic change on the flat pavé of the Hauts-de-France? If Pogačar cannot shed him on the flat, Van der Poel can afford to work with him – because on paper, he is the stronger of the two on Roubaix’s terrain. Therefore, there is reason for optimism in the Alpecin camp. Roubaix is a different beast entirely and its three-time champion thrives on the long, grinding flat roads and cobbled sectors of northern France.
Of all the Monuments, it’s the one that suits Van der Poel the most. He’s ticked off Flanders and Sanremo. Feats Pogačar has now also achieved.
"It is maybe even more difficult for him to win Roubaix than Sanremo," Van der Poel said of Pogačar. "But nobody will say anymore that he can't win a race like this. You need a bit of luck, of course, but I think he showed last year that he is capable of winning. He is a rider who can do everything."
There was magnanimity there – but also a quiet confidence. On flat roads, where bike handling and positioning are paramount, and with a potential velodrome sprint waiting, the race still suits Van der Poel more than anyone else on the start line. Especially if there is a tailwind.
“The tailwind is always good for me. I think it makes the raceway harder and more open. I think if you have really, if you have the wind fighting against you all day, it can be more, more of a close race, and also less good for attackers.”
The Philipsen factor
It’s not only the terrain that changes at Roubaix compared to Roubaix and Sanremo, but also the power dynamic. Roubaix is often won by attackers. But that doesn’t mean other riders cannot influence the race, even if it’s only the threat of them coming back to the front. Philipsen has mopped up behind Van der Poel in two editions of Roubaix. The presence of a genuine sprint threat in his own team gives Van der Poel options that simply didn't exist at Flanders.
For whatever reason he had for working with Pogačar at Flanders, in a small group of favourites Van der Poel can and should sit on (if Philipsen is behind). No one will want the world’s best Classics sprinter to be nearby as they approach the Vélodrome André-Pétrieux. That threat alone will make Pogačar pull on the front, burning energy. Energy Van der Poel won’t have to expend.
However, UAE have their own second fiddle in Florian Veermersch, who beat Van der Poel to the runner-up spot at the 2021 edition. He’s a rider Alpecin cannot ignore.
“Everybody saw how strong Florian has been riding this year. Roubaix is also a race where you can go alone. We have to try to avoid a situation where we have to chase someone. We have an ideal scenario because Jasper is faster in the sprint than Florian,” said Van der Poel.
With Pogačar’s best bet being to make the race as hard as possible, Alpecin will have to weather a storm of attacks. The world champion may be going for history, as he hopes to become the first rider to hold all five Monuments, but Van der Poel already has history on his side. Can he continue it?
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