Date: Saturday August 24, 2024
Distance: 159km
Start location: Úbeda
Finish location: Cazorla
Start time: 13:30 CEST
Finish time (approx): 17:20 CEST
The legacy of the Islamic conquest of Spain, which endured through much of the Iberian Peninsula for the best part of a millennia between the eighth century to the 15th, can be felt throughout Andalusia. On one hand, there is the Moorish architecture that can be found in the region, which was the stronghold of the conquers from North Africa. Then there are the many castles that were constructed during this era as part of the conflict between the Moors and the Christians, who fully reclaimed the peninsula in 1492 after the prolonged efforts of the Reconquista. In the province of Jaen, which today’s stage travels through, there is a higher concentration of castles than anywhere in Europe.
In contrast to much of Andalusia, the backdrop to the start of stage eight in Úbeda will be characterised by Christian Renaissance architecture rather than Moorish. In the 16th century, about 300 years after being retaken by the Christians, the city enjoyed a boom in construction as money poured in under the patronage of Emperor Charles V, and many of the impressive Renaissance buildings from then remain, continuing to wow tourists.
From Úbeda, the riders will head eastwards and then south for a finish in Cazorla, for what is in many ways a quintessential stage of the Vuelta a España, presenting challenges that make it so distinctive from the other Grand Tours. Firstly, there’s the heat. Andalusia is one of the hottest regions in all of Europe, especially during this time of year, when temperature remains in the mid-30s. Such conditions can make racing very sapping regardless of the terrain, and the riders need to remain mentally switched on to remember to hydrate. As the fourth of five days spent in the region, if the weather is indeed sunny, this could be a very difficult phase of the race.
As well as the heat, the stage climaxes with another Vuelta speciality: a steep uphill finish. The race has made its trademark short but steep summit finishes, even on days which wouldn’t otherwise be for the climbers, as is the case today, which features only the modest category two Puerto Mirador de las Palomas before the final climb to Cazorla. This final effort might only consist of 4.8km of climbing, but there are enough vicious ramps, including one of 17% at the start and 13.5% for the final kilometre, to have an impact. That said, there are also plenty of benign sections when the road flattens out again, so much so that in total, the climb averages 7.1%. The only other time it has featured at the Vuelta was in 2015, when Esteban Chaves attacked 2km from the summit to take victory, five seconds ahead of the chasing of Dan Martin and Tom Dumoulin, and 11 seconds ahead of the peloton, which had been reduced to 20 riders. We can anticipate something similar today.
Stage profile sourced via Vuelta website
Contenders
Stage eight is the type of profile that makes it hard to predict how it will unfold. The ramps on the uphill finish are steep enough to ignite a battle between the general classification riders, especially when many have some catching up to do after letting Ben O'Connor take so much time on stage six and into the red jersey. Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe were intent on pushing the pace on the final climb on stage seven for their GC rider Primož Roglič, who fought for the bonus seconds. We expect they'll try a similar move on the final of stage eight, with Roglič attacking on the double-digit ramps to limit the losses from earlier in the week. Even if he can't go clear however, the Slovenian is the prime candidate to sprint to victory from a small group.
Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto Dsnty) showed he can run Roglič close in the mountain-top sprints, and could be a contender on the steep finale here.
If Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) wants to keep the red jersey for as long as possible, he needs to stay with his rivals such as Roglič, Sepp Kuss (Visma-Lease a Bike), João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) and Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain-Victorious). O'Connor's biggest threats on a stage like this will most likely be Roglič, Van Eetvelt, Carapaz and Skjelmose, all of who can conquer shorter but brutally punchy climbs like the one finishing this stage.
On the other hand, it could be a prime opportunity for the breakaway to try their luck and go for the stage win. Riders such as Dylan Teuns (Israel-Premier Tech), Jhonatan Narváez (Ineos Grenadiers), Pelayo Sánchez (Movistar) or Filippo Zana (Jayco-Alula) will be hungry to get into the day's break. Or we might see Pavel Sivakov and Marc Soler (UAE Team Emirates) try their hands again. Cristián Rodríguez (Arkéa-B&B Hotels) could be an option for the French team. He placed fifth on stage six and will try and get the most out of this race as he can.
After a monumental effort on stage seven in the blazing heat, 22-year-old Xabier Isasa (Euskaltel-Euskadi) might go for the break again in the hopes of more riders joining him. As might his teammate Luis Ángel Maté, who currently sits fifth in the mountains classification.
Stage eight winners prediction
We think that'll the stage will boil down to a GC battle and coming out on top will be Primož Roglič.
