Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 10 preview - a day of two halves

Distance: 196km
Start location: Scandiano 
Finish location: Viareggio
Start time: 12:05 CEST
Finish time (approx): 17:14 CEST

Although the Giro d’Italia hasn’t visited for a stage finish since 1982, the residents of Viareggio are used to a colourful parade passing through town. For 150 years it has hosted the Viareggio carnival, during which floats carrying huge, impressively designed papier-mâché figures along the town’s boardwalk, some towering over 20 metres high. Every year various celebrities and various political figures are lampooned, with one especially grotesque depiction of a giant, armoured Donald Trump catching the attention of the world’s media a few years ago. 

Viareggio is on the Tyrrhenian coast, with the riders passing through the Tuscan Apennines in order to arrive there today, and it has historically been associated with ship-building. In the nineteenth century it gained a reputation for its craftsmanship in building ships for trade, and these days it is renowned for being the main producer of luxury yachts in the world. Its coast was also the scene of a literary tragedy in 1822, when the body of the great romantic poet Percey Shelley, at the age of just 29, washed up on the shore following a boating accident. 

Stage 10 profile sourced on the Giro d'Italia website 

This stage can be very neatly separated into two halves. The first is spent mostly climbing, with the riders reaching over 1,500 metres in altitude at its highest peak, 87.5km into the stage. After setting off from the small town of Scandiano, the riders head south over the Tuscan Apennines, and the road is undulating right from the off. Although the first categorised climb of the day, the category two Passo delle Radici, is officially only 2.6km long, it could be said to start some 45km earlier as this is when the road first heads uphill. The gradients are mostly mild, but will still work to wear the riders out by the time it tilts up to 8% for the official climb. 

The crest of Passo delle Radici marks the beginning of the second half of the stage, starting with a long, technical descent. Although the Monterperpoli is tackled at the bottom, it’s only ranked category four and is less than 3km long, so shouldn’t have much of an impact on the race. After that there’s a 75km flat run-in to the finish, which will help the sprinters’ team chase whatever break was formed at the start of the day. Although the earlier terrain should ensure that a lot of strong riders eager to take a stage victory should be among them, the sprinters won't want to let this opportunity for a stage win pass given the paucity of chances for them throughout the whole Giro. 

Contenders

With 2600 metres of climbing throughout the stage, this could be a day of the 2023 Giro d’Italia which is too difficult for the sprinters to contest. The undulating terrain means it will also be tricky to control the gap to a breakaway, so it might be that some of the fast men who can also climb well try to infiltrate the breakaway of the day. This could be a good tactic for the likes of Michael Matthews (Jayco-Alula), who already has a stage victory to his name in this race or Pascal Ackermann (UAE Team Emirates), who looks to have been climbing well over the past week. Mads Pedersen of Trek Segafredo is another rider who we could see trying to get in the breakaway, though the hills might be too challenging for the Dane who sprinted to victory on stage six to Napoli. Kaden Groves of Alpecin-Deceunick may also try to squeeze into the break, though this could be difficult for the Australian rider who will likely be heavily marked. 

Coming the day after a rest day, there are plenty of riders who we can expect to try their hand in the breakaway, namely Simon Clarke of Israel-Premier Tech who will be keen to come back after the heartbreak of stage six when he was narrowly caught before the line after being in the breakaway for the entire stage. The duo of Magnus Cort and Ben Healy from EF Education-EasyPost are also ones to watch today, they both perform well from reduced groups and Healy has already proven his form with a win on stage eight. Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates) is another rider who has been keen to get in breakaways in this race so far – albeit to no avail – and he could try again today. Bob Jungels of Bora-Hansgrohe could also be a strong contender on the flat finish if he can get into a breakaway as could a rider like Pavel Sivakov (Ineos Grenadiers) if he is given the freedom to go for it by his team.

Toms Skujiņš of Trek-Segafredo has been riding well so far this Giro d’Italia and spent a day in the breakaway on stage four of the race and could go for it again during stage ten. Derek Gee of Israel-Premier Tech is another fast finisher who could do well if he makes it to the line in a reduced bunch kick and Italian national champion Filippo Zana of Jayco-Alula will also dream of stage victory today in his home country.

Prediction

We expect this to come to a sprint from the breakaway and are betting on Magnus Cort of EF Education-EasyPost to take victory. Cort and Healy could work well together if they both make it into the break of the day and Cort’s sprint is extremely strong from a reduced group.