Much like the Germans and extra-time in football, there’s a predictable formula to Vuelta a España summit finishes that involve Primož Roglič. The script goes something like this: a breakaway consisting of mostly Spanish riders hangs out front for 150km, and then they’re brought back into the fold as the peloton turn onto the finishing climb, a hideous, hellish, savage ascent with ramps exceeding and then staying at 15% or more gradients. The front group thins, often quite fast, more hopes are extinguished, but those still left at the head of the race continue to hammer on the rough, corrugated hormigón surface.
The flamme rouge is passed, but slowly – on these horrifically steep repechos not even cars can advance past 15 kph – and then the banners that count down the final hundreds of metres appear. At 500m, Roglič is present, but so too are another handful of rivals. Enric Mas, maligned, a figure of fun despite three Vuelta podium finishes, is almost always there, but he won’t win the stage. He never does. Neither will anyone else. The stage will be won by Primož Roglič. He’ll open up his sprint in the final 100 metres, someone will invariably try to match him – this time it was Lennert Van Eetvelt – but Roglič will cross the line first. He always does.
And so it proved again on stage four of the 2024 Vuelta, all the protagonists playing their role in the script that was written well in advance of the proceedings taking place. Van Eetvelt, Lotto Dstny’s prodigious young talent, thought he had clinched it, raising his arm in the air, but Roglič still had a metre of road to pass the 23-year-old, which he inevitably did. Ten bonus seconds for Roglič and into the red leader’s jersey – his leader’s jersey – he goes.
The Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe rider has won this race three times, perhaps would have beaten Remco Evenepoel to the title in 2022 had he not crashed in the final few days, and very dearly wanted to prevent Sepp Kuss, his then teammate, from winning 12 months ago. In a parallel universe, the 34-year-old would be going for his sixth straight Vuelta title.
But he’s not, a record-equalling fourth will have to suffice for now, and based on the race’s first summit finish, he is in pole position to come through on the goods. João Almeida, one of three UAE Team Emirates leaders, recovered from an initial struggle on the Pico Villuercas climb to finish third, and the Portuguese is eight seconds adrift of Roglič in the GC. After that, the pair’s other expected rivals are already fading: defending champion Kuss ceded 28 seconds; Carlos Rodríguez lost 51 seconds; and Adam Yates and Richard Caparaz both shipped a minute-and-a-half.
Yet despite some ambitions already cracking, this year’s Vuelta, devoid of the Tour de France’s star studded podium – Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard and Evenepoel – is a much more open contest. Antonio Tiberi, the revelation of the Giro d’Italia, is in fourth; Van Eetvelt, in fifth, is a tremendously exciting prospect; Felix Gall, Matthew Riccitello and Mikel Landa – yes, Landismo is alive, it was never dead – are all in the picture. And, yup, Mas is predictably there, too, just don’t expect the Spaniards to sing his praise. And don’t expect him to win; one of the podium’s minor spots is reserved for the Mallorcan.
That's not to say no-one can prevent Roglič. There are a lot of mountains to go between here and Madrid, and those behind him will be heartened by their relatively short time gaps to the Slovenian. But Roglič winning a summit finish sprint, Roglifying his opponents, fully recovered from his Tour fall, is an ominous sign.
We’ve seen this story before, and it usually only ends with one outcome.
