Just 10 days ago, Ben O’Connor had a stranglehold on the Vuelta a España’s red leader’s jersey. Now, it’s dangling faintly and feebly off his little pinkie. He’s fought valiantly for almost two weeks, batted off the gang of Primož Roglič, Enric Mas, Richard Carapaz and various others keen on snatching the prized possession off him, but now his resistance is coming to its end. He is resigning himself to the inevitability that defeat is imminent, and soon his tormentors will prevail.
The near-five-minute lead that he so unexpectedly found himself having after stage six has been reduced to just five seconds after the conclusion of stage 16. Had Roglič not been deducted 20 seconds for drafting behind his Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe team car on Sunday’s stage 15, O’Connor would already have been deposed of red. He was given a lifeline but even that’s on borrowed time, the last of his nine lives probably lasting until Friday, when the race climbs the consistently steep Alto de Moncalvillo.
The chase could be finished before that – Thursday’s mid-mountain stage after tomorrow’s sprint might entice one of the unrelenting bandits of Roglič, Mas and Carapaz – but it’ll almost certainly be game over by the end of the week. Some had assumed it would be a quick snatch and run job from Roglič or co., not accounting for O’Connor’s credentials in the mountains, despite previously finishing fourth at the Tour de France and Giro d’Italia. More fool them: O’Connor has battled bravely, gritting his teeth so hard that dentists have been wincing, but ultimately every time the Vuelta has turned on to a horror gradient, he has ceded time. Often, quite considerable chunks, at least by GC standards.
On Lagos de Covadonga, arguably Spain’s most mythical climb in the heart of Asturias which was shrouded in its typical Vuelta cloak of fog and incessant rain, O’Connor lost 58 seconds to the aforementioned GC trio, crossing the line almost five minutes behind the stage winner Marc Soler of UAE Team Emirates.
Australian O’Connor didn’t have the worst day, that was the points and mountain classifications leader Wout van Aert who heartbreakingly crashed out, but he did confirm that his role at the top of the general classification is now one of a caretaker. Roglič looked vulnerable, twice failing to respond to Mas’s powerful but short-lived attacks, but the truth is he’s regularly putting a minute or more into the leader on finishing climbs. And with the final day being a flat 24km time trial that Roglič could possibly win, O’Connor’s grip on red is extremely fragile. You could even say artificial.
Unless, however, there’s a twist. Roglič still has to stay on his bike, a non-flippant comment rooted in the fact he falls on average once every 18 race days. Should Roglič falter, O’Connor still has almost a minute-and-a-half on Mas – an advantage he could maintain. That said, Mas appears to be in the form of his life. The Movistar rider’s attacks aren’t having the desired effect of permanently distancing Roglič, but he continues to soften him up, temporarily put time between them both, and have the Slovenian on the proverbial ropes. Crucially, he too has cut his gap to the leader. History suggests that Mas, just like O’Connor, will post an inferior TT time to Roglič, but his 80 second deficit to the three-time winner is not insurmountable in the remaining two summit finishes. Ditto Carapaz, at 101 seconds in arrears.
The raiders have almost snatched their prize from its terrified owner, but a new gang war is brewing in which the thieves will turn on one another: who’ll be the final owner of the coveted crown? And could the victim of the ganging up still surprise us all and emerge victorious?
