Date: Tuesday August 20, 2024
Distance: 170.5km
Start location: Plasencia
Finish location: Pico Villuercas
Start time: 13:05 CEST
Finish time (approx): 17:19 CEST
Adeus Portugal and Hola Spain! After three days in its neighbouring country, a long transfer east takes the Vuelta across the border for a first stage on home roads. Placencia will host the race’s return, a market city in the remote region of Extremadura, whose preserved mediaeval walls and impressive Renaissance architecture mark an era of prosperity enjoyed here during the 15th century.
The race might be in a different country, but it remains in the same mountain range briefly sampled during stage three — and will, this time, fully engage with the mountains for what will be the first serious GC stage of the race. From Placencia, the riders travel north into the Spanish Sierra de Gredos section of the Sistema Central, where they will climb the first two mountains of this year’s Vuelta back-to-back. The first, the Puerto de Cabezabellosa, is the easiest of the two, with a modest average gradient of 5.4%, but will still provide a stern test over 9.2km. Once they’re done descending that, they will almost immediately start up the Alto de Pironal, a category one mountain (the first of the Vuelta a España) with similar gradients but over a longer distance of 13.9km. That was enough for a group of nine GC contenders to pull ahead of the rest of the peloton by over one minute when used as a summit finish at the 2022 edition.
These are proper mountains and will ensure that only strong climbers (albeit ones who are already far down on GC not to be a red jersey threat) get into the day’s break. But the over 100km of mostly downhill and flat roads (save for smaller, category three Puerto de Miravete) between the summit of Alto de Pironal and the start of the final climb of Pico Villuercas means their role will be to gradually wear down the riders’ legs ahead of the GC action at the finish. In 2021, Romain Bardet was the strongest climber from the day’s 18-man break to take the stage win, while behind, though only four riders finished with overall favourite and eventual winner Primož Roglič, none of the other GC contenders lost more than sixteen seconds.
This time, however, the riders will climb to the Pico Villuercas summit via a different side, which poses a very different challenge. Whereas in 2021, it remained about as hard all the way up, this will very much be a climb of two halves. The first 9km average a very reasonable 4% before suddenly ramping up to double-digit gradients for three horrible kilometres, including one stretch at 20%, all made even harder by the narrow roads and rough surfaces. Things ease off a bit for the final 2km, but there’s still time for one ramp of 15% before they reach the finish. On slopes like these, gaps between the top GC favourites are guaranteed.
Stage profile sourced via Vuelta website
Contenders
We're not expecting the GC rivals to battle it out this early in the Vuelta, so a breakaway will likely make it to the finish line first. And with the 20% gradients on the cards, it will be those strong in the mountains wanting to get into the break. Valentin Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) will be one of those riders. He's a pure climber, which he demonstrated at the Giro d'Italia earlier in the year, taking a stage victory atop Bocca della Selva and a second-place podium at Bassano del Grappa. He is 2:04 down on the GC, so could also be an opportunity to ride himself into the red jersey.
Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech) will be keen to see what he can do in a Grand Tour after a season full of sickness and setbacks. Jesús Herrada (Cofidis) has also come back from sickness, abandoning the Tour de France in July. He's the type of rider who could excel on a stage like this, so we expect to see him trying to get into the day's break.
His final Grand Tour, Thomas De Gendt (Lotto Dstny) may try to secure a victory early on in this three-week race. Cristián Rodríguez (Arkéa-B&B Hotels) could be a rider the French team chose to go in the break, or they may choose to go for Ion Izagirre, who is also a contender for a mountain stage.
Twenty-one-year-old Max Poole (Team DSM-Fermenich PostNL) could look to go for the stage win. He's been on excellent form so far this season, recently taking the youth classification at the Vuelta a Burgos and second on the GC. Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan) could be another rider in contention for the first mountain stage win, as could Welay Hagos Berhe (Jayco Alula) and Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Wanty).
Four riders who were very active on stage three were current KOM leader Luis Ángel Maté and his teammate Xabier Isasa (Euskaltel-Euskadi), as well as Ibon Ruiz and Unai Iribar (Equipo Kern Pharma), who we expect to get up the road again and fight for those KOM points.
Stage four winners prediction
With stage four finishing atop such a gruelling climb, we think Valentin Paret-Peintre will take the stage for Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale.
