Date: Sunday 1 September, 2024
Distance: 143km
Start location: Infiesto
Finish location: Valgrande-Pajares
Start time: 13:51 CET
Finish time (approx): 17:20 CET
When Cuitu Negru was first used at the Vuelta a España, in 2012, the riders found it so unendurably hard that debate raged as to whether it should have been included at all. The race is no stranger to agonisingly steep gradients that bring even the best climbers in the world to a near standstill — just up the road here in Asturias is the infamous Alto de Angliru, perhaps the most difficult climb in all of cycling. “There was nothing exaggerated about it,” said Dario Cataldo of the Cuitu Negru. “On a Grand Tour, it’s normal to get a climb like this one, we’re used to it”.
But then again, Cataldo had had a very different experience of the climb, having been the stage winner. Many who trailed him felt differently, amid a sense that the organisers might have gone too far with this climb. "I have never seen anything as hard as the Cuitu Negru,” said Robert Gesink, one of the riders in the mix for GC that year. “I almost fell off my bike.” His Rabobank teammate Laurens Ten Dam wasn’t happy either. "It was perhaps a great show for the spectators, but not for the riders.”
This uneasy sense of not wanting the riders to feel as though they’re circus animals performing tricks for the fans might explain why Cuitu Negru had not featured at any Vuelta in the following twelve years — that is, until now. The mountain will be the destination of stage 15, and, as one of only two mountains assigned the highest ‘hors’ category, and the highest point of the whole race, will be the hardest and possibly most important test of the Vuelta. There’s actually nothing uncommonly challenging about the first 13km of the mountain, which climbs at an average of 7%, with occasional steep ramps. It’s the final 3km, after a short plateau section, that caused all the controversy, rising at 13% on average, with some ramps even reaching 25%.
Even before this final climb, the riders will have to get themselves over Alto de la Colladiella, not once but twice. Its final 3.5km stretch of over 9% has been enough to designate a category one effort, but even at its summit it comes to less than half the height of the 1,847m Cuitu Negru. As hard as it is, this double ascent will serve as a mere warm-up act for the headliner mountain. Twelve years ago, Chris Froome was dropped and dumped out of GC contention altogether on this climb, as Alberto Contador and Alejandro Valverde were the only GC contenders to lose less than 1-30 to Joaquim Rodriguez in the red jersey. On a mountain like this, someone’s red jersey dream could come to an abrupt end today too.
Stage profile sourced via Vuelta website
Contenders
There's no doubt that stage 15 is going to be a crucial day in this year's Vuelta a España. However, while we will certainly see a shake up in the general classification, it has become a trend in this Vuelta for the GC teams to allow a big breakaway to get up the road in order to contest the stage win, leaving those fighting for red racing it out for crucial seconds behind them.
With this in mind, we can look to some of the breakaway artists who are also strong climbers as potential winners atop Cuitu Negru. Michael Woods of Isreal-Premier Tech has already proved he is in strong form with his solo stage win a few days ago, so he could be a rider who has a chance from the break. The same can be said for Team dsm-firmenich-PostNL's young talented climber Max Poole, who has had two podium finishes on similarly hilly stages so far in this race. UAE Team Emirates will also fancy their chances for a win today, and they have multiple options with Jay Vine, Brandon McNulty and Marc Soler.
If the general classification riders end up reeling the breakaway back in and going for stage victory, Primož Roglič is the outstanding favourite to win. The Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe rider has been steadily improving in this race and has time to make up on red jersey wearer Ben O'Connor. Enric Mas of Movistar is another rider who could have a chance if Roglič isn't at his climbing best – the home favourite has looked strong during the Vuelta so far. Mikel Landa of Soudal-Quick Step is also known to enjoy tough climbs like Cuitu Negru, so he is one to watch too.
Stage 15 stage winner prediction
We're betting on Primož Roglič to take the stage win today, he's looked unbeatable on the climbs so far and his team will be motivated to secure both a stage win and the red jersey.
