For most of the Tour de France, Jonas Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike have been riding on the defensive. Though there has been plenty of GC action already at this Tour, the battles have invariably been instigated by Tadej Pogačar and UAE Team Emirates, whose attacks on the Gailiber on stage four, gravel on stage nine and up the Puy Mary during stage eleven have been the first shots fired.
In some respects stage 13 continued in this vein. Though Pogačar did not make an attack, his UAE Team Emirates teammate Adam Yates did manage to sneak up the road at the very start of the day, as part of a dangerous-looking break of over 20 riders. In ninth place at only 6:59 down, Yates was not a rider they could afford to gain time and get back into GC contention; and so once again, Visma-Lease a Bike were on the back foot.
But what happened next marked a shift in approach from the Dutch team, and constituted what could be considered their first big offensive of the Tour. As the crosswinds raged, rather than simply set the tempo in order to bring the Yates group back, Visma-Lease a Bike went on the attack to try and unsettle Pogačar. Only 25km into the stage, they massed at the front of the peloton and suddenly upped the pace fast enough to cause a split of just 10 riders going clear, half of which were their own riders — Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte, Tiesj Benoot, Matteo Jorgenson and, of course, Vingegaard himself. Pogačar was alert to the move and managed to follow it, but had only one teammate, João Almeida, for company, while the other top GC favourite Remco Evenepoel (Soudal–Quick-Step) was completely isolated. For the first time this year, it was Vingegaard putting Pogačar under pressure, rather than vice versa.
It’s been said many times during this Tour that Vingegaard is waiting until deeper into the race to try to make up the time he needs on Pogačar, as he continues to come into top form after his compromised lead-in to the race, and waits for the high mountains that are to come. But though the high mountains are where he typically has the beating of Pogačar, in terms of their respective teams, it’s in circumstances like today’s that Visma-Lease a Bike have the advantage. While their line-up is missing elite climbers who made them such a force in the mountains in previous Tours, most notably the unfit Sepp Kuss and Steven Kruisjwijk, and the departed Primož Roglič, stepping in to replace them are some of the best Classics riders and most powerful rouleurs in the world.
Just look at the riders of theirs who broke the race up today. Between them, Laporte, Benoot and Jorgensen have won Gent-Wevelgem, Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne, Strade Bianche and two Dwars door Vlaanderen editions; and that’s not even getting into Van Aert’s palmarès. Their ability to withstand windy weather, position themselves in the peloton, and lay the power down on flat roads made them a lethal prospect on days like today, so you could see why Visma-Lease a Bike didn’t simply wait for tomorrow’s entry into the Pyrenees to make a move.
UAE Team Emirates, by contrast, were less comfortable in these conditions. By stacking their team so full of quality climbers, their line-up has a distinctly unbalanced look to it, and they were almost exposed today. Tim Wellens and Nils Politt are the only two rouleurs in the eight-man line-up, and even they weren’t present to help Pogačar when Visma-Lease a Bike made the split — perhaps worn out from having already gotten through so much work this Tour doing the donkey work defending the yellow jersey? The team were clearly vulnerable today, so it’s just as well Pogačar was alert to the danger, or else this might have been a fatal day.
Instead, nothing came of Visma-Lease a Bike’s attack, as Ineos Grenadiers hauled the rest of the peloton back up to them 10km after the split (working for their leader Carlos Rodríguez, who had also missed the selection). From then on their chief task returned to catching Yates, and, after a long chase and with help from other teams (while UAE Team Emirates enjoyed the luxury of sitting back and following wheels), they succeeded in doing so 70km from the finish.
Ultimately, Pogačar, Vingegaard and all of their main domestiques finished together in the peloton, reduced by the finish to about 80 in size, minus one rider. And the absence of that rider made what would have been a draw between the two rival teams become a day that left UAE Team Emirates looking weaker. Juan Ayuso was the rider missing, having struggled from the very start of the stage, and soon abandoning, his team announcing that he had tested positive for Covid-19. The Spaniard had been looking good in ninth place on GC, and was poised to play a key role as super-domestique for Pogačar in the mountains. Instead, UAE Team Emirates will go into the Pyrenees tomorrow a man down, while Visma-Lease a Bike retain their full roster of eight riders.
Still, it remains true that UAE Team Emirates still look stronger than Visma-Lease a Bike for the Pyrenean summits waiting for them this weekend. Pogačar can still call upon João Almeida and Adam Yates as climbing super-domestiques, either to put pressure on Vingegaard by setting a fierce pace if he’s feeling strong, or to protect him if he’s feeling weak. Vingegaard, by contrast, has only Matteo Jorgenson at a comparable level, and he’s not as proven this deep into a Grand Tour as those riders. With Marc Soler and Pavel Sivakov also to put them under pressure, Visma-Lease a Bike will need either Wout van Aert to quickly rediscover his top climbing form, or Wilco Kelderman and Tiesj Benoot up their game significantly, if Vingegaard is to not be exposed on the climbs. If they can’t, and Vingegaard is left too isolated to cause Pogačar, might they rue not making more of today’s opportunity to gain time on his in the crosswinds?
