Vuelta España 2025 predictions: the riders to watch out for at the Spanish Grand Tour

Vuelta España 2025 predictions: the riders to watch out for at the Spanish Grand Tour

Rouleur predicts who will come out on top in the battles for the red jersey, the sprints finishes, the mountain stages and breakaways at the Vuelta a España

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The final Grand Tour of the year is just around the corner. For some, the Vuelta a España is the season’s last shot at Grand Tour redemption; for others, it’s a launching pad into cycling’s elite. Beginning in Turin, Italy, the 2025 route winds its way to Madrid over three weeks, featuring mountain passes, unpredictable terrain, and a start list packed with stars, rising talents, and hardened opportunists. We take a look at the riders who we think will light up the race.

Red jersey winner

The maillot rojo, the Vuelta's red leader’s jersey, may not be as prestigious as its yellow and pink counterparts of the Tour de France and Giro d'Italia, but it is still one of cycling's most hotly contested prizes. This year, the general classification battle is expected to be shaped by uphill finishes, a pivotal time trial, and a brutal middle week in the mountains. The Vuelta’s overall contenders have taken different routes to the start line in Turin, some rode the Tour, others the Giro, and a few targeted the overall classification at the Vuelta as their season goal. 

The race has attracted one of the top riders of the past five years in Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), who knows he is the man to beat. With five top-two finishes at the Tour in the last five editions, only topping the podium will be good enough for the Dane. The big question is: can he hit peak condition again this late in the season? Or does he need to?

Jonas Vingegaard

As always his principal rivals come from UAE Team Emirates-XRG, only this time not in the form of the all-conquering Tadej Pogačar, but through João Almeida and Juan Ayuso. Ayuso, Spain’s brightest GC hope, returns to the race that made him a household name. He’s already podiumed here and will be aiming higher with a home crowd behind him. Almeida, meanwhile, brings consistency, strength in the time trials, and a relentless climbing rhythm. Together, they form the race’s strongest one–two punch — if internal competition doesn’t get in the way.

Juan Ayuso

The Austrian Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team) has quietly built a reputation as one of the peloton’s best pure climbers. After strong showings in the Tour and smaller stage races, Gall could emerge as a genuine podium threat. A fan-favourite, Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step) will be fired up for big days in the mountains, especially in front of home fans in the Basque Country. A Giro winner, Jai Hindley (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), who thrives in the third week, could be dangerous on long climbs and has the experience to exploit tactical chaos. As could former Tour and Giro champion Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers). The Colombian’s former teammate Tom Pidcock, now at Q36.5 Pro Cycling, looks set to target the GC but that focus could change to stage hunting. Fifth place finisher at this year’s Giro, Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain-Victorious) will also be challenging for another Grand Tour top five.

Best climbers

The Vuelta is notorious for its climbs, and this year is no different with several key ascents like the Alto de L’Angliru and the Bola del Mundo set to determine the fight for the red jersey. 

The KOM competition, with the prize being a white and blue polka dot jersey, is likely to go to one of the overall protagonists like Vingegaard. However, there is a chance for a climbing specialist to target the competition. Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) has said he’s focusing on stage wins and the KOM jersey, but his explosive climbing could easily launch him into GC contention if the cards fall right. He’s unpredictable, aggressive, and loves steep gradients — perfect for the Vuelta.

Giulio Ciccone

Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) is returning to the race where he first made his name when he won two stages in 2022. He will most likely be riding in support of his leaders Almeida and Ayuso and so might not be given the freedom to chase stages and KOM points.

Likewise, Visma-Lease a Bike have brought a raft of climbing talent, including 2023 winner Sepp Kuss, fellow American Matteo Jorgenson and the young British talent Ben Tulett, who will all ride in the service of Vingegaard but could be given their own chances to go for stage glory. Similarly, Giulio Pellizzari will likely ride for his Red Bull teammate Hindley — or step up as a GC leader himself — but either way he could be one to watch in the high mountains. Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal Quick-Step) is coming off the biggest win of his career, triumphing on Mont Ventoux at the Tour in July. Like some of the other climbing domestiques on this list, he will likely be tasked with helping his leader (Landa), but he could get a chance to go for his own stage win. Jayco Alula bring three climbing talents in Chris Harper, Eddie Dunbar and Ben O'Connor, who was second last year and might target another GC result. 

Ben O'Connor

Could David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) return to winning ways at the Vuelta? The Frenchman tends to perform well at the Spanish Grand Tour and would fancy his chances in a summit finish. 

A climber, who will not be tethered to a GC leader is Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS Astana Team). The Italian has a history of winning major summit finishes at Grand Tours when in 2021 he won on the punishing Monte Zoncolan at the Giro. He has also performed well in the north of Spain before, winning the Vuelta Asturias in 2023. Could we see him return to the region and claim victory on the hardest climb of the race on the Alto de L’Angliru on stage 13?

Lorenzo Fortunato

The American Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech) is climber suited to the steep climbs in this year's Vuelta. His teammate Marco Frigo is also in with a shout of a mountain stage win from a breakaway. 

Top sprinters

While not a sprinter-heavy race, the Vuelta still offers a few chances for the fast men — if they can survive the hills. The star sprinter on the start line is Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), back after dropping out of the Tour on stage three. With a top-tier lead-out, he’ll be the heavy favourite whenever it comes to a bunch sprint.

However, Lidl-Trek are bringing their own superstar, Mads Pedersen. Versatile, powerful, and combative, Pedersen has a strong record in Grand Tours. He can climb better than Philipsen and so he is capable of surviving hilly stages and winning from small groups, too.

Mads Pedersen

Movistar come to their home race with the dual sprint threats of Iván García Cortina and Orluis Aular. Cortina will aim for uphill finishes, while Aular may get his chance in flatter finales.

The sprint field is relatively light at the Vuelta so we could see the likes of Ben Turner or Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers) try their hand at the flatter finishes. If Ineos opt to chase sprint stages, Turner is a solid bet. Ganna could also sneak a win in longer, more attritional stages where power matters. Likewise, Axel Zingle (Visma-Lease a Bike) is not a pure sprinter, but he is crafty and fast after hard days. He’s one to watch when the peloton gets thinned out.

Breakaway specialists

The Vuelta often rewards risk-takers, and this year’s rolling and medium mountain stages will suit aggressive riders. Ganna and Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) will be going after the time trial on stage 18. As could Victor Campenaerts (Visma-Lease a Bike). All three will also be eyeing a breakaway stage.

Other riders to watch out for on transition days or when the break is given freedom in the mountains include Carlos Verona and Julien Bernard (Lidl-Trek), Finn Fisher-Black (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), and Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team). Pablo Castrillo (Movistar Team) returns to the race one year on from his two stage wins in the space of four days, back when he was riding for Equipo Kern Pharma.

Pablo Castrillo

The Vuelta has a reputation for the unexpected. In a season defined by injuries, shake-ups, and rising stars, the 2025 edition could offer up some surprises. Although he’s the nailed-on favourite, Vingegaard will want to assert early dominance to return to Grand Tour winning ways. Almeida will hope to be able to use his moment to shine outside the shadow of Pogačar, but what of his teammate Ayuso? He will be eyeing Spain’s first win since Alberto Contador’s 2014 triumph. It's all to play for in the final Grand Tour of the 2025 season. 

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