Date: Tuesday 3 September, 2024
Distance: 181.5km
Start location: Luanco
Finish location: Lagos de Covadonga
Start time: 12:50 CEST
Finish time (approx): 17:18 CEST
Mountains that attain an iconic status in cycling usually do so not just for how hard they are to climb up, but also for what they are like as a location. Situated in the heart of the Picos de Europa National Park (the first of its kind in the nation, having first been designated a national park in 1918) Lagos de Covadonga stands out from the many other summits in the Cantabrian Mountains that have been used in the Vuelta a España for this very reason. Its name refers to the stunningly beautiful Enol and Ercina lakes that glisten just beneath its summit, which, alongside a thriving ecosystem of wildlife that includes everything from brown bears, bearded vultures, and even wolves, make it a popular spot.
In terms of what it’s like to ride, Lagos de Covadonga is unique for its near-constant gradients, which demand constant gear changes and make judging your efforts and pacing yourself properly almost as important as having good legs. Rather than one single, complete climb, it might be better described as several steep ramps stitched together. These ramps are notable enough to have been given their own distinct name, and each one of the Mirador del Canonigos section that comes a few kilometres into the climb, the Huesera tackled halfway up, and Mirador de la Reina near the summit feature double-digit gradients. With stretches of flat and sometimes even downhill between them, it’s impossible to get into a steady rhythm on this climb.
Lagos de Covadonga alone would be enough to make stage 16 a crucial mountain stage, but the presence of a couple of other category one summits earlier makes it one of the hardest stages of the race. The first 70km are deceptively simple, as the riders face mostly flat roads upon heading east out of the fishing town of Luanco on the coast of the Cantabrian Sea, but things change direction south to travel inland. First is the Mirador del Fito, a 7km climb with an especially tough second half where the gradient nearly averages 10%. Then, having entered the Redes National Park that neighbours Picos de Europa, they climb up the even harder Collada Llamena, where the steep gradient of over 9% lasts for a longer 7.6km.
Usually, the sensible ploy on a stage finishing atop such a hard mountain is to save your powder for it, but in 2021 Egan Bernal and Primož Roglič surprised the field by going clear on the Collada Llamena, Roglič eventually going solo to take a big stage win and take firm control of the red jersey. Repeating such a move still feels risky considering the 45km of descending and valley roads between its summit and the start of the Covadonga, but given that, as we now enter the final week, time is running out for time to be gained in the GC race, and that there is only one comparatively big mountain stage to come after today’s, this might be the time for such high risk but potentially high reward attacks.
Stage profile sourced via Vuelta website
Contenders
Slowly and steadily Primož Roglič (Bora-Hansgrohe) has been chipping away at the time between himself and the red jersey, Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), with only 43 seconds now between the two riders. Roglič has looked stronger in the mountains compared to O'Connor, often dropping him on the steepest slopes, and with the final summit to Lagos de Covadonga (where Roglič has won before) being a brutally hard climb, we expect a similar scenario to happen. It is possible that Roglič could be in red by the end of the stage if O'Connor cannot stick to his wheel the entire way up.
One rider who has proven his ability to stick and also beat Roglič in the mountains is Enric Mas (Movistar). The Spaniard has looked solid so far and could see himself secure a stage win atop this iconic climb. He's 2:23 behind O'Connor and will want to ensure he can stay on the podium before the finish at the end of the week. But, Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) wants to be on that podium too and he's only 21 seconds away. He's an explosive rider and could try and make an attack on the final climb to take a stage win and knock Mas from third position on the GC. Other GC contenders who are all looking to move up in the rankings and capable of dominating such stages are Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Mikel Landa (Soudal–Quick-Step), Carlos Rodriguez (Ineos Grenadiers), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), and Sepp Kuss (Visma-Lease a Bike).
Stage winner Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech) could also be a contender for a second stage win for the team, or we may even see riders such as Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates), Max Poole (Team DSM-Fermenich PostNL), or Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Wanty) try and go for stage glory. Eddie Dunar (Jayco Alula) is also climbing extremely well following his long-awaited stage win on stage 11 and could be a rider to cross the finish line first.
Stage 16 winner prediction
We think Primož Roglič will take the stage win.
