Date: Sunday, July 6
Distance: 209km
Start location: Lauwin-Planque
Finish location: Boulogne-sur-Mer
Start time: 12:15 CEST
Finish time:17:20 CEST (approx.)
It’s far from a glamorous location, or a thriving tourist destination, but the Nord region where the opening stages of this year’s Tour de France are concentrated was once the beating heart of French industry. Coal mining in the expansive Nord-Pas de Calais coalfields was its main export during the nineteenth century, as commemorated at the former pit of Delloye located just outside of stage two’s departure town of Lauwin-Planque, that has since been turned into a museum. Those mines all closed during the second half of the twentieth century, causing a period of economic decline it is still struggling from.
From Lauwin-Planque the riders will head west to the coastal city of Boulogne-sur-Mer, which is another place that’s suffered from a dwindling in its leading industry. Historically it has been a popular tourist destination, located on the Côte d'Opale part of the northern coastline known for its beaches and cliff faces, which has charmed many a visitor from across the English Channel — most notably one Charles Dickens. However, the opening of the Channel Tunnel in 1994 shifted attention away from here towards Calais instead, and its once frequent ferry services have ceased. Still, fishing in Boulogne-sur-Mer’s has continued to thrive, and it remains the largest fishing port in the country.
Appropriately for a stage associated with such tough industries, this is set to be an arduous toil suited to the hardmen of the peloton. At 209km it’s the longest stage of the whole Tour, and the terrain undulates throughout, amounting to 2,550m despite the lack of any climb ranked higher than category three. Advantageously for the puncheurs, these climbs are concentrated in the finale, with the 1.1km, 9.4% Côte de Haute Pichot situated 30km from the finish, followed by two similarly short, steep climbs inside the final 10km, ahead of a shallower uphill to the finish at Boulogne-sur-Mer.
Averaging 3.8% for 1.2km, this climactic climb is exactly the kind in the past that would have been labelled a ‘Peter Sagan finish’, and indeed the Slovak triumphed the last time the Tour visited here 13 years ago (albeit at a different, steeper finish), by enough of a margin to showcase a memorable ‘running man’ celebration. Teams with similarly profiled riders — ie, sprinters who don’t lose too much of their speed on an uphill incline — will therefore want to control the race for a bunch finish, but will they succeed? Both the climbs preceding the finale feature double-digit gradients that could be springboards for punchy attacks, and, with a possible yellow jersey as well as a stage win on offer, there’s plenty of incentive for riders to have a go. And given the way modern cycling has developed, even the GC riders might see this as an opportunity to steal a march on their rivals and gain some time, especially at the end of such a long day where legs will be worn down.
Contenders
Stage two promises fireworks with its punchy terrain favouring explosive riders. Puncheurs like Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin–Deceuninck) and Wout van Aert (Visma–Lease a Bike) are well suited to the finale. Versatile sprinters such as stage one winner Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin–Deceuninck) and second-place finisher Biniam Girmay (Intermarché–Wanty) could also survive the lumpy finale to contest the sprint, depending on how aggressive the race becomes.
However, it could also be a day where GC riders have a go, especially the likes of Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) and Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step), who lost some time on stage one. Don't underestimate the finishing punch of Jonas Vingegaard (Visma–Lease a Bike). GC riders often find themselves at the front at the right time as they try to ensure they avoid losing time, particularly if crosswinds or late attacks come into play.
Outsiders like Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez (UAE Team Emirates) — especially if Pogačar encounters any trouble — Thibau Nys (Lidl–Trek), Romain Grégoire (Groupama–FDJ), Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa–B&B Hotels), and Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X Mobility) could seize the moment from a reduced group or late break. With such a diverse cast, the stage could go in many directions.
Prediction
We think Mathieu van der Poel will win Alpecin-Deceuninck's second stage and take the yellow jersey off of his teammate's back.
