Date: Friday, July 25
Distance: 130km
Start location: Albertville
Finish location: La Plagne
Start time: 13:30 CEST
Finish time: 17:18 CEST
This is likely to be the day that the ultimate fate of the yellow jersey is decided. Though there are more hills to come in the final two stages that follow, today is the last day in the high Alpine mountains, and therefore the last real chance for time to be won and lost. The top of the GC would have to be very tight for the GC to still be in play, and that seems unlikely in the aftermath of a stage like this, where the gaps are set to be big.
Just like yesterday this is another festival of climbing, with multiple giant mountains to get over, but one that’s very different in nature. Whereas that was a long arduous grind, this is the shortest road stage of the Tour de France at 130km consisting of even less kilometres than the finale in Paris. It will therefore be an intense, explosive day, one that will be raced hard and raced fast. There might be stages with a greater total elevation gain than today’s 4,550m, but this is the most per kilometre.
Much of that time climbing will be spent up the final mountain of La Plagne, the last summit of the race. It’s punishingly long, lasting 19.1km, yet also relentlessly steep, averaging 7.2% and only rarely dipping beneath 6%. Laurent Fignon has especially fond memories of this climb, claiming two victories at very times of his career. In 1984, at the peak of his powers, he rode away from the field to win by over a minute, to seal one his five stage wins during a Tour in which he won the yellow jersey at a canter. That success suggested he would go on to dominate the Tour for years to come, only for his career to be blighted by injury problems; so when he returned to La Plagne again three years later to take another win that ended his three year drought without a Tour stage, it was a triumphant comeback.
While the conventional approach would be for the GC riders to wait for La Plagne to make their moves, this stage is short enough for earlier moves to be on the cards. The first climbs of the day, the category two Côte d' Héry-sur-Ugine and the category one Col des Saisies are certainly hard, especially considering how short the descent is between them, but are likely to be too early to draw out the GC leaders. Instead, the key battle will be among their teammates trying to get up the road as potentially race-changing satellite riders, putting themselves in a position to help assist their leaders later by getting into the day’s break amid those looking for the stage win, and those still in the King of the Mountains contest. For anyone feeling bold, the next two climbs, the hors category Col du Pré (12.6km at 7.7%) and the shorter Cormet de Roseland (5.9km at 6.3%) that immediately follows it could provide a springboard for attacks, the latter crested just less than 50km from the finish. The stage is set for a thriller.
Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) was looking imperious on the brutal Col de la Loze on stage 18 and as always is a favourite for any summit finish, while his closest rival Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) is still harbouring hopes of upsetting his dominance.
Behind the top two riders, the other GC contenders will all be looking for opportunities to shake up the standings. Oscar Onley (Picnic-PostNL) has moved to within 22 seconds of third place, currently occupied by Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe). They are both going for the white jersey competition. Lipowitz's teammate Primož Roglič is looking stronger as this Tour goes on, and Red Bull could repeat their aggressive tactics from stage 18 on the final high mountain test
Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa B&B), Tobias Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility), Felix Gall (Decathlon Ag2r La Mondiale), and Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) are all holding onto top 10 GC spots, while Ben O'Connor (Jayco Alula) moved into 10th thanks to his victory on Col de la Loze.
If the breakaway is allowed to contest the stage win, a number of pure climbers could thrive on the route to La Plagne. Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious) and Thymen Arensman (Ineos Grenadiers), active throughout this Tour, could target both KOM points and the stage. Simon Yates and Sepp Kuss (Visma), Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team), Luke Plapp (Jayco-Alula), Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious), Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal-Quickstep), Einer Rubio (Movistar Team) and Michael Storer (Tudor) all have the climbing pedigree to succeed here. Will UAE let one of their climbing domestiques Adam Yates or Jhonatan Narváez go for the stage?
Prediction
We think Tadej Pogačar will want to win the last big mountain stage, wearing the yellow jersey.
