Date: Wednesday, July 16
Distance: 157km
Start location: Toulouse
Finish location: Toulouse
Start time: 13:15 CEST
Finish time: 17:05 CEST
The second phase of the Tour de France begins today. A long transfer brings the race south for a start in Toulouse, and ever closer to the Pyrenees, where the GC race will soon ignite. We’re not in those mountains yet, the riders eased back into racing after the rest day with a stage that is the shortest completed so far (and third shortest of the race) that loops away from and then back towards Toulouse around mostly flat roads. But the riders might start to feel the heat, which is often yet another factor that makes the Tour de France such a gruelling test — the temperature here averages 23 degrees at this time of year with highs over 30, and the riders will spend the rest of the second week even further south.
As well as being known for its distinctive pink-coloured architecture constructed from the local terracotta bricks, a successful rugby team, and the Basilica of St Sernin that lays claim to being the largest Romanesque building in Europe, Toulouse is also a place of high tech and intellect. Its aerospace industry is the largest in Europe, and it's home to one of the oldest universities, the alumni of which include the 17th-century mathematician Pierre de Fermat. It was here where he conceived Fermat’s Last Theorem, which became notorious as the most difficult mathematical problem to solve — riders trying to figure out a way to defeat Tadej Pogačar can probably relate.
Today won’t be a day for solving that particular conundrum, in what looks instead to be finely poised between hopeful breakaway specialists and the sprinters. Recent history suggests Toulouse is a town for bunch sprints: in 2019, Caleb Ewan pipped Dylan Groenewegen in a photo finish to claim what was his first ever Tour stage win, while 11 years earlier, Mark Cavendish was the victor on a rainy day, by a much bigger margin ahead of Gerald Ciolek.
However, the parcours today is trickier. There are five categorised climbs in total, four of them coming inside the final 46km. The hardest of them all, the category three Côte de Pech David, comes just 9km from the finish, and rising at a vicious 12.4% is steep enough for puncheurs to launch attacks, even if it does last only 800m. This climb could make all the difference, not just for attackers to gain enough of a gap over the peloton to survive to the finish, but perhaps also to discourage the sprinters’ teams from chasing down the day’s break. But with the Pyrenees on the horizon, and no realistic chance for another bunch sprint until a week later, surely they won’t want to let this opportunity slip by?
Contenders
Due to the lumpy finale, it would take a sprinter who is capable of climbing to survive the stage. Last year's green jersey winner, Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), can climb well but hasn't quite shown the form to win a stage yet at this race. Likewise, Kaden Groves (Alpecin–Deceuninck) is a pure sprinter but one who can get over climbs. His Alpecin team may decide to let Mathieu van der Poel have a go at the stage, as he has shown his form is there to win from both the peloton and breakaway.
The Tour's two fastest sprinters, Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) and Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step), may struggle to get over the climbs to challenge. The former can climb better than the latter, but his Lidl-Trek team might allow their puncheurs like Quinn Simmons, Thibau Nys, or Jasper Stuyven to try their luck.
The current yellow jersey team EF Education-EasyPost, after Ben Healy's impressive ride on stage 10 might want to continue their aggressive racing and have the riders to challenge on a stage like this, including Kasper Asgreen and Neilson Powless.
Other teams should try and get riders in the breakaway for a chance at glory, including Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team), Davide Ballerini (XDS Astana Team), Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility), Fred Wright (Bahrain-Victorious), Louis Barré (Intermarché-Wanty), Axel Laurence and Samuel Watson (Ineos Grenadiers).
Prediction
We think the breakaway will take the win, and Mathieu van der Poel will win his second stage of the Tour.
