March is here, which means in the cycling world it’s time for the start of the European stage race season.
Paris-Nice will be the first European stage race leg of the WorldTour, and so, as ever, attracts a star-studded line-up of riders wanting to build their form, and/or claim what is one of the most prestigious titles on the calendar outside of the Grand Tours and Monuments.
The style of racing can be different here from those later in the year, as the weather plays a big factor – cold weather and especially strong winds have put paid to many a GC ambition over the year. It might be known as the Race to the Sun, signifying its finish on the French Riviera, but the riders have to get there first.
Here's who we think are the riders best equipped and in the best form to handle the challenges this race throws up.
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)
With Tadej Pogačar focusing on the Classics, Remco Evenepoel recovering from injury and Primož Roglič riding a light stage race program in preparation for a Giro d’Italia/Tour de France double, that leaves Jonas Vingegaard as the sole elite GC star at Paris-Nice. Though he’ll ride alongside defending champion Matteo Jorgenson for Visma-Lease a Bike, Jorgenson will likely revert to a support role as at the Classics, as Vingegaard is a top favourite for every stage race he compete in — in fact, he’s won all six of the last (non-Grand Tour) stage races he’s finished since early 2023.
The last time he didn’t triumph was, incidentally, Paris-Nice when he went too deep trying to match Pogačar, but he’s a wiser, more accomplished rider now. Overall victory at Volta ao Algarve indicates he’s in form, although he did have to rely on his time trialling rather than climbing to do so; could the lack of an individual time trial here hinder him?
João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates)
João Almeida must be wondering how he hasn’t won a stage race already this season. He looked poised to seal Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana only to hand the yellow jersey to Santiago Buitrago after being ambushed on the penultimate day; then at Volta ao Algarve, despite distancing him on the crucial summit finish days before, he conceded 30 seconds to Jonas Vingegaard in the final time trial to once again have to settle for second overall. Being consistent but lacking a killer instinct has characterised the Portuguese rider’s performances for a few years now, but with a strong and in-form UAE Team Emirates line-up also featuring Pavel Sivakov (recent winner of the Vuelta a Andalucía) and Brandon McNulty (third overall at last year’s Paris-Nice) he’ll have plenty of support to attempt to win what would be a first stage race title for over three years, and biggest of his career.
Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain-Victorious)
One of the most in-form riders of the year so far, Santiago Buitrago has already managed overall victory and two stages at the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana and second overall at Tour des Alpes-Maritimes. He will therefore likely pull rank over the likes of Jack Haig and Lenny Martinez to lead Bahrain-Victorious, in a race he has unfinished business at having had to pull out of last year’s race on the final day while well-positioned in second overall. The lack of a time trial will suit a rider of his lightweight stature, but he’ll have to be careful not to get caught out in the event of any crosswinds — a common occurrence at Paris-Nice.
Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)
Paris-Nice will be the first stage race of the season for Mattias Skjelmose, as he builds towards a planned Tour de France appearance in the summer. The Dane has ambitions of a high finish there, so will want to prove his credentials on French roads next week. He was fourth overall (and a stage winner) here last year, one of four consecutive top five finishes at WorldTour stage races (including fifth overall at the Vuelta a España), so has proven himself as one of the most reliably consistent GC riders in the peloton; now, with a year’s extra development in his legs, the 24-year-old will be hoping he’s now capable of taking the next step and claiming overall victory.
Other contenders
In the sprint finishes Tim Merlier (Soudal–Quick-Step) is the fastest name on paper, and is in great form having already picked up two stages at both the Alula Tour and UAE Tour - the latter amid a much more competitive sprinting line-up than here. He’ll be up against the likes of Sam Welsford (Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe), Fabio Jakobsen (Picnic PostNL) and Arnaud Démare (Arkéa B&B Hotels), but his main rival may well turn out to be Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek). Although not as quick a pure sprinter, Pedersen flourishes in a hard race, and could benefit in the event that crosswinds shape the sprint stages. Having won Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in a sprint at the end of a tough stage, Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X Mobility) is another in the same vein.
There will be some opportunities for punchy stage-hunters in between the bunch sprint and GC days. The steep uphill at the end of stage five is the kind of thing that used to be the bread and butter of Julian Alaphilippe, so it will be interesting to see if he can still compete for the win there, as he embarks on a new chapter in his career riding for Tudor Pro Cycling. Michael Matthews (Jayco-Alula) will likely be one of his rivals for the stage win.
Fitness rather than form is the main issue for Romain Bardet (Picnic PostNL), having crashed out while well-positioned on GC at Volta ao Algarve, while for young Iván Romeo (Movistar), who has started the season so well with fourth overall at the UAE Tour, the test will be whether he can also compete for GC in a more prestigious, competitive WorldTour race.
