Werner Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle states that, in the quantum world of particles, it is impossible to measure the precise position and momentum of a particle simultaneously. There is a trade-off between these complementary variables in that by knowing one, the other simply cannot be precisely known.
Bike racers will be familiar with trying to wrestle with the limited precision with which they can measure variables. Calculating if and when a breakaway can be caught while preserving your own energy levels and avoiding handing an advantage to the competitors around you is a measurement that can often go awry. The precision of this calculation is often made more uncertain as teammates around you diminish and fall away.
It is that uncertainty that played into the hands of Mavi García on stage two of the Tour de France Femmes. The Spaniard broke clear from a reduced peloton of both stage and GC favourites with 10.8km to go of the race to Quimper in what seemed like an unlikely reach of success given the strength in numbers of the peloton behind which still featured yellow jersey wearer Marianne Vos (Visma-Lease a Bike) and a determined Lorena Wiebes (SD Worx-Protime), refusing to be shelled on the preceding climbs like the other sprinters.
The oldest rider in the peloton, perhaps García’s reputation preceded her. The 41-year-old is no stranger to daring attacks, but has scored fewer victories outside of her National Championships than her talent would suggest. This looked like another doomed escapade, the gap hardly shifting above 18 seconds and more often close to 10.
But uncertainty was already creeping into the peloton even before the final climb to the finish line. Several different teams tried their hand on the front, with a resurgent Lotte Kopecky even finding her way back after being dropped to do one more turn for Wiebes into the bottom of the final climb.
Despite the lack of initiative in closing the gap to García by a single team, there must have been a sense in the bunch that the calculation had been made correctly as she hung out within almost arm’s reach with just 800m remaining.
There were attempts to accelerate on the steepest slopes from Kasia Niewiadoma (Canyon/SRAM-Zondacrypto), and at one point the TV time graphic indicated García held just two seconds. But as the road flattened the ability to make the catch and ward off the still present Wiebes outsprinting the remaining group became seemingly impossible; both could not be precisely achieved simultaneously.
Even after Chloe Dygert (Canyon/SRAM- Zondacrypto) took up the mantle until 400m to go in service of Niewiadoma, the result was a stall as riders looked around and Wiebes simply waited. García meanwhile, was closing in on victory.
By the time the chasing group reached a comfortable sprinting distance it was too late. They had succeeded in denying Wiebes the victory (albeit she easily beat them all for second place), but had failed to determine what was needed to catch a victorious García. A victory initiated through bravery, but achieved by virtue of uncertainty.
