The general consensus from across the cycling landscape is that the 2026 Tour de France route will pose no problems to Tadej Pogačar. There are no cobbles or gravel sections that could cause untimely and unwanted mechanicals, and neither are there dozens and dozens of flat time trial kilometres to swing the momentum away from Pogačar and towards Remco Evenepoel. It is, the assessment goes, a very kind route for the road race world champion. And Pogačar’s UAE Team Emirates-XRG are not going to pretend otherwise.
“To be honest, until we get to the final week, it’s a more tranquil and calm Tour,” the team’s sports manager Joxean Fernández Matxin tells Rouleur. “But neither is it flat and neither are there many stages for the pure sprinters. The intention from what I see is that the organisers don’t want the race finished in the first or second week – they want it to still be open and competitive in the third week and I think that is meritorious.”
After Pogačar as good as won the Tour by stage 15 in 2024 and stage 12 in 2025, stripping the final week in both editions of suspense, ASO, the race organisers, quite clearly want to keep the race alive until the very end – in their wildest dreams it’d be settled on the Montmartre circuit in Paris on stage 21. “That’s why the route isn’t so heavy in the first two weeks,” Matxin adds.
The 2026 Tour route was announced in Paris by the race director Christian Prudhomme. Image: ASO/Thomas Maheux
But there are, Matxin insists, potential obstacles for Pogačar as he seeks to win a record-equalling fifth yellow jersey. The opening weekend in Barcelona stands out to the Spanish manager. “The team time trial is different to usual team time trials as each rider is given the time they cross the line in,” Matxin says. “It’s a very technical stage and it will be very important to avoid problems – everyone will be in contention but anyone can lose time on that course. And the second stage on Montjuïc you can also lose seconds. It’s technical and positioning is so important. We saw this year at the Volta a Catalunya when Primož Roglič attacked, Juan Ayuso wasn’t in a good position and he couldn’t recover. So positioning on the Montjuïc will be so important.”
The one individual time trial, though, will not constitute a major thorn in Pogačar’s side, Matxin believes. To the contrary, it could benefit him, especially with the first 11.5km of the 26km course being a gradual ascent of just over 300m. “It’s not a time trial for specialists,” he says “It’s not as hard as the Nice time trial in 2024 – that had a bigger climb in it – but it’s similar in that it’s a time trial where the more important thing will be the rider’s strength and not them being a time trial specialist.”
Many observers, including Evenepoel and his new team Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe, had hoped for the inclusion of more time trial kilometres to take the fight to Pogačar. But Matxin defended the Slovenian’s record against the clock, stating that while it is irrefutable that Evenepoel as the reigning Olympic, European and world champion is the better tester of the two, Grand Tour tests against the clock are different beasts; indeed, he has already won four Tour TTs in the past.
Will the expected battle between Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard run into the final week in 2026? Image: ASO/Billy Ceusters
“This idea that it would be more difficult [for Pogačar] if there were more time trial kilometres, I’m not sure I agree,” Matxin continues. “If the time trial was at the beginning of the race, it’d be easier for Remco or riders like him, but the stage being where it is, it’s more about who arrives in best shape and who among the main candidates has best managed their condition in the first two weeks. For a time trial on stage 16, Tadej, Remco and Jonas [Vingegaard] are a lot more balanced than if it were a flat time trial in the first week. It’s a time trial that has been designed to keep the balance between them all.”
There were doubts even just a few weeks ago if Pogačar would even defend his Tour title, with the recently-turned 27-year-old admitting to fears of burnout during this summer’s race. But it is now clear that he will ride the Tour again, and there is even talk about him attempting to win the Giro d’Italia for a second time. “It’s true we’ve spoken about it and now we’ll see what the Giro route is,” Matxin comments.
A way of combatting Pogačar’s fatigue, tiredness and even boredom during the race could be to keep him out of the race lead for as long as possible. It’s an approach he’s never before favoured, but perhaps two weeks or more without the obligations of doping control and post-stage media interviews would make the experience more enjoyable for him. What’s more, the Tour appears to be set up for the breakaway hunters, limiting Pogačar (if one can limit him) to fewer stage opportunities.
“There are not many stages for the pure sprinters, and neither are there many for the pure climbers,” Matxin says. “There are more possibilities for the breakaway to fight for stages. Circumstances appear in the race and tactics change, and the team controlling might be happy to let the breakaway take the lead sometimes. But it’s not a format that always succeeds, and nothing can be mathematically certain.”
Cover image: ASO/Billy Ceusters
