Date: Sunday, May 25
Distance: 219km
Start location: Fiume Veneto
Finish location: Asiago
Start time: 11:26 CEST
Finish time: 17:12 CEST (approx.)
When the riders reach the foot of Monte Grappa, just over 100km into what is the final stage of the second week, they begin the climatic endgame of this year’s Giro d’Italia. This is their introduction to the Alps, the mountain range in which they will spend almost all of the second week, and where an abundance of fearsome, famous summits await them. Today, Monte Grappa contributes the best part of what amounts to 3,900m elevation gain, more than any other stage so far. And this is a mere warm-up act, with three of the Alpine stages coming up next week featuring in excess of 4,000m.
For its most recent Giro appearances, Monte Grappa has featured as the final Alpine ascent rather than the first. That was the case last year, when it was climbed not once but twice on the race’s penultimate day. By then, the GC race was already all but sewn up, Tadej Pogačar leading the race by nearly eight minutes, but the Slovenian’s appetite was insatiable. He used the second ascent of the mountain to attack 36km from the finish, and went on to catch and pass the young lone leader Giulio Pellizzari to claim the fifth of his six stage wins at that race, by a huge margin of over two minutes.
It was a much closer affair when the climb was used as part of the penultimate stage of the 2017 edition, in which no less than six riders remained in contention for the pink jersey, separated by just 1:30 on GC. A thrilling encounter began with attacks on Monte Grappa among those six riders, and continued on the following climb, when Nairo Quintana, Thibaut Pinot, Vincenzo Nibali, Ilnur Zakarin and Domenico Pozzovivo succeeded in distancing the sixth pink jersey contender, Tom Dumoulin. A tense pursuit ensued on the 14km plateau to the finish, and the Dutchman dug deep enough to limit his losses to the quintet to 15 seconds, then went on to gain enough time in the climactic time trial to win the Giro d’Italia ahead of them all.
Today’s stage is similarly structured to this one from 2017, in that there will be another, albeit not quite as difficult, mountain tackled after Monte Grappa (a long slog of 16.4km to Dori, though with more manageable gradients averaging 5.4%); and the summit of that climb will again be followed by a plateau to the same finish in Asiago, a small town known for its cheese. However, today is unlikely to be quite so dramatic. Monte Grappa this time comes 90km from the finish rather than 65km, which, hard as its 25.1km at an average of 5.7% is, may simply be too far from the finish to draw out any attacks, while the plateau from the summit of the final climb to the finish is 27.5km rather than 14km. And whereas both the 2017 and 2024 stages were the penultimate of the race, this one comes at the end of the second week, with plenty more mountains to come. The GC riders may hold their fire and wait for them.
Contenders
Like many of the climbing stages in this Giro, the location of the day's hardest climb does not necessarily lend itself to a fight between the general classification riders. Moreover, stage 14's near-30km plateau to the finish would make an attack on either of the day's climbs a particularly bold move for any pink jersey contenders. However, if the GC group does make it to the finish at the front of the race, it will be the fast finishers once again competing for stage victory. UAE pair Isaac del Toro and Juan Ayuso have been head and shoulders above everyone else in that regard, however, Primož Roglic (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) has a long history of going well in sprints after tough mountain days, while Richard Carapaz (EF Education-Easypost) also boasts a fast kick.
It seems likely, though, that a breakaway should be allowed to stay away on this terrain. Only pure climbers further down the GC are going to be able to survive over Monte Grappa, so expect the likes of Romain Bardet (Picnic-PostNL), Wout Poels (XDS-Astana), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Wanty), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), and Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon-Ag2r La Mondiale) to all try to get in the breakaway.
Mathias Vacek (Lidl-Trek) has been one of the race's most impressive riders so far, and could be a contender if he's able to get in the breakaway and hold on over the climbs.
It's an almost certainty that we'll see Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS-Astana) in the breakaway, too, as he chases mountain points in the blue jersey. But his efforts in that competition may make it unlikely he'll be able to compete for stage victory.
Other possible contenders include Rémy Rochas (Groupama-FDJ), Marco Frigo (Israel-Premier Tech), Filippo Zana and Luke Plapp (both Jayco-Alula), Nairo Quintana and Davide Formolo (Movistar), Georg Steinhauser (EF Education-EasyPost), and Stefano Oldani (Cofidis).
Prediction
We think Wout Poels will win stage 14 from the breakaway.
