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The finale of stage 11 of the Giro d’Italia was vintage Richard Carapaz; his move on the last climb was unorthodox, unplanned and had no guarantee of success — in fact, if he were caught he could have lost time — but that’s the way the Ecuadorian races and has always done so to harvest some of the most impressive palmarès in the peloton. The Giro title, an Olympic games road race, the Tour de France polka dot jersey are a few of his successes.
Right now, in a Giro d’Italia without a stand out favourite, it could come down to who is willing to risk losing in order to win, making a decision that may have to be taken in a split second. Carapaz’s EF Education-EasyPost’s sports director Juan Manuel Gárate admitted Carapaz didn’t know the profile of the final climb and radioed back to his team car asking how steep it was — his winning move which brought him within two minutes of Isaac del Toro’s (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) maglia rosa was unplanned — Gárate told him: “Just follow your instincts, don’t stop yourself and just go for it.”
The labels mercurial or maverick can sometimes do a disservice to sportspeople, insinuating that they could perhaps be hasty or reckless but Carapaz embodies a certain canny adventurousness. He finds the balance of attacking and waiting, spending minimal energy in the first half of the race to save himself for when his audacious moves are more likely to pay off. This is the mark of his astuteness and acumen.
“He does everything in a very professional way,” said Gárate, who also admitted their star man lost a bit more than expected in the stage 10 time trial but that: “The determination he has is amazing, and we didn’t have any doubts that he would keep on fighting.”
Has the 2019 Giro winner’s bold attack shown the way to clinch the pink jersey? On stage 11’s evidence, fortune could favour the bold and Carapaz’s success could tempt others to do the same. Not only did Carapaz gain time on the road but importantly he exposed UAE, who did try to chase him — the pink jersey himself, Del Toro also tried to bridge to him but wasn’t as good as Carapaz. For all their strength in numbers in the top 10 on the GC, this is not a squad with Tadej Pogačar leading their charge, who can match any move.
Without Pogačar, should UAE think of attack as being the best form of defence of the maglia rosa? They have not been shy in making the racing aggressive at this Giro, as shown by Del Toro’s exploits on stage nine strade bianche. But, they may regret not trying to isolate their main concern Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) more on stage 11. There were points after the Alpe San Pelligreno, where they were caught in two minds about applying pressure but in the end they seemed content on the break taking the stage, only for Lidl-Trek to take up the chase. Ayuso and Del Toro do not have the experience of Carapaz and Roglič at the third week of a Grand Tour, so they should look to gain as much time as possible and not let anyone off the hook.
At the end of the day, they didn’t lose much time to Carapaz (10 seconds on the road) but on another day they might have gained some. Perhaps, the fact they couldn’t reel Carapaz back in showed that it was the right call. But you can’t help but feel that if Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard or Remco Evenepoel were here they would have tried to expose their rivals more.
What Ayuso and Del Toro may be lacking in experience, their management and teammates around them should make up for. And they know they need to hammer their advantage home on their more seasoned rivals. Snooker player Alan McManus once said: “When you are standing on your opponent’s neck, don’t forget to stamp.”
They only have to think back to March’s Volta a Catalunya, when Roglič’s final stage raid won him the overall, beating Ayuso to the title. Or if they asked around the peloton, they would hear some stories of past GC regrets. Ineos Grenadiers know all too well that Roglič doesn’t ever give up, that a gap of less than two minutes is not enough going into the latter stages of a Grand Tour. Two years ago Geraint Thomas spent almost half the race in the pink jersey and at points had opportunities to put Roglič under more pressure but chose not to. They lost that Corsa Rosa by 0.14 to the Slovenian.
Roglič himself could follow Carapaz’s lead and launch some opportunistic moves too – he is no stranger to turnarounds that have snatched Grand Tour wins. By far the most haunting example of a rider not being put to bed was when Pogačar stole the 2020 Tour from Roglič on the penultimate day — a harrowing experience which seems to have shaped the way the Red Bull rider has raced since. Opportunistic moves could shape the next phase of the Giro. Carapaz’s former teammate Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) has already shown willingness and Lidl-Trek seem keen to launch their man Giulio Ciccone.
It could be El Jaguar de Tulcan or perhaps another who follows his example, but this Giro could be snatched by the rider who rolls the dice — as the stages get tougher, the rewards only get greater.
