As spectacular as the racing can be, many observers of modern day cycling often lament how predictable racing has become, with the select few names regularly taking the major honours. Just take the recent list of winners of the Monuments: until Wout van Aert’s triumph at Paris-Roubaix last weekend, each of the previous eleven had been shared between Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel.
Bucking that trend is the Amstel Gold Race. With its well-balanced hilly terrain, that’s still selective but not as rewarding to brute strength as other races, the Dutch classic has been thrillingly unpredictable and difficult to call in recent years, with every edition since 2016 won by someone different. Of all the major one-day classics on the calendar, this one may be the most open to the most potential winners.
The list of candidates for the victory on Sunday is therefore wide and long. We’ve picked out the main men we think have the best shout.
Contenders
Remco Evenepoel
In the absence of a resting Tadej Pogačar, all eyes will be on Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) to set the agenda at Amstel Gold. He had a huge impact on last year’s race, too, when his blistering chase turned the race on its head and brought back the seemingly uncatchable Pogačar, despite only having raced a single day prior to it. And this year, there are no doubts regarding his form, having finished an exceptional third on debut at his unexpected appearance at the Tour of Flanders.
Evenepoel will likely want a tough, selective race, and to go clear early rather than leave things to chance later on, and has a strong Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe line-up to help him to so, including many of those who starred in the cobbled classics such as Gianni Vermeersch and Tim Van Dijke.
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Tom Pidcock
Of the many one day classics Tom Pidcock (Pinarello Q36.5) excels at, the Amstel Gold Race and its punchy terrain might be the one that suits him the best, reflected by his exceptional record at having won once (in 2024) and made the podium twice in his five appearances so far. He’s also started the season with great legs, almost getting the better of no less than Tadej Pogačar at Milan-Sanremo having already won Milano-Torino. The signs are promising, therefore, but much will hinge on what his fitness is like having not raced since crashing out of Volta a Catalunya last month.
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Matteo Jorgenson
Usually a fixture of the cobbled classics, where he has won Dwars door Vlaanderen before the versatile Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike) decided to skip them this year in order to target the Ardennes Classics instead. This will be only the second time he has raced Amstel Gold, but he certainly has the attributes to perform well here, as well as the form, having looked great at Tirreno Adriatico to finish second overall. Visma-Lease a Bike also have the in-form Christophe Laporte riding, whose strength lies in sitting back and delivering a quick sprint, so Jorgenson will have a licence to ride aggressively and try to pick the perfect moment to break clear.
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Mattias Skjelmose
At last year’s Amstel Gold Race, Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) achieved something that, prior to Wout van Aert’s triumph at Paris-Roubaix last weekend, no rider other than Mathieu van der Poel had managed since September 2024: defeat Tadej Pogačar in a head-to-head battle at a classic. That unlikely result ought to make it a lot more difficult for him to ride quite so stealthily again, but he is nevertheless a canny, strong rider who is still capable of devising a way to defend his title. His form towards the end of Itzulia Basque Country was, however, a little discouraging.
(Image credit: Getty)
Ben Healy
The Ardennes Classics are Ben Healy’s (EF Education-EastPost) time to shine, and he goes into this year’s hoping for a first victory having previously placed second at Amstel Gold and third at Liège–Bastogne–Liège. The continuously lumpy terrain of Amstel Gold means there are multiple moments where he can make one of his trademark moves, but key to it being successful will be timing - we know how much power he can pack, but he needs to pick the right moment to make one big, decisive move, rather than multiple only partially successful digs. Without a top five finish so far this season, his form is a concern, but he tends to peak in time for these races.
(Image credit: Getty)
Other contenders
In the absence of Tadej Pogačar, UAE Team Emirates-XRG will turn to the likes of Tim Wellens and former Amstel Gold runner-up Benoît Cosnefroy, while the end of Van der Poel’s spring means his talented young Alpecin-Premier Tech Tibor Del Grosso gets a chance to lead the team.
However, the strongest team riding is arguably Ineos Grenadiers. Not only do they have Dorian Godon, who has been in great sprinting form with wins at Paris-Nice and Volta a Catalunya, but also Kévin Vauquelin and Axel Laurance, who won a stage at Itzulia Basque Country.
Itzulia Basque Country is often a prophetic indication of condition going into the Ardennes Classics, on which basis Alex Aranburu (Cofidis) is a candidate for the victory at Amsel Gold following his spectacular stage win there, plus GC top ten finishers Ion Izagirre (Cofidis), Clément Champoussin (XDS Astana), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) and Alex Baudin (EF Education-EasyPost).
Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ United) took a different path by riding the cobbled classics, but is a contender having finished seventh here last year and a very impressive fourth at Strade Bianche earlier this spring, while you can never quite discount Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor Pro Cycling) on parcours like this, especially remembering how it was he who first sparked the race into life last year.
Prediction
Remco Evenepoel is the favourite, but Amstel Gold is an unpredictable race, where the strongest rider doesn't always come out on top. Brains can be as important as legs, and there are ample opportunities for riders to slip clear and make well-timed race-winning moves that take others by surprise — and we’re backing Matteo Jorgenson to do just that.
