There have now been two major Pyrenean stages in the high mountains in successive days, the kind of terrain that you’d normally expect to see a major sort out in the GC rankings; yet the race for the red jersey at this Vuelta a España remains unusually, and intriguingly, wide open.
At the end of yesterday’s stage, after 3475m had been climbed, the group of favourites still had 12 riders all roll over the line on the same time. Now today, despite containing even more climbing, and with a supposedly harder summit finish, the group of favourites at the finish was even bigger, with 15 riders all finishing together.
The GC rankings therefore remain tightly packed together. After the demolition jobs carried out by Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG) in so many Grand Tours these past few seasons, we’ve grown accustomed to riders reaching the summit finishes in ones and twos, with gaps between them often being measured in minutes rather than seconds. The first mountain stages of this Vuelta could hardly make for a starker contrast.
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At the same time, these stages have not been dull stalemates. There have been attacks from the top favourites on both the last two day’s summit finishes, it’s just that none of them have managed to stick. Yesterday, Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) and race favourite Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) broke clear from their rivals, managing to get a gap. The explosive power they showed in doing so, and the advantage they managed to gain and, for a little while, maintain, suggested that they’re the riders climbing the best at this race. But as strong as they looked, they didn’t have any time gains to show for it, after being reeled back in by the chasing group, and finishing with the same time.
Then today, those same two riders joined Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) and Sepp Kuss (Visma-Lease a Bike) in marking a big move made by João Almeida, after he was set up by Team Emirates XRG teammate Marc Soler. But once again the outcome was much the same, the group behind organising and bringing them back before the top.
Whereas recent Grand Tours, and mountain stages in general, have seen clear hierarchies formed the moment the big favourites attack, at this year’s Vuelta there appears there has so far been little to separate them. That might have something to do with these summit finishes not quite being difficult enough to force selections; yesterday’s climb of Pal in Andorra averaged a modest 6.2%, while today’s Cerler, though longer, was gentler still, at 5.8%. But it might also be that the top favourites are all at a very similar level right now.
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That’s reflected in the GC rankings, which are remarkably compact considering all of the climbing that’s been completed already. A mere 31 seconds separate Vingegaard in second place and Soler in eleventh, with most of the men tipped to challenge for the podium — from the in-form Giulio Ciccone and João Almeida to former Grand Tour winners Egan Bernal and Jai Hindley (Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe) — somewhere tightly squeezed in between. For now, all of them can dream of the podium.
There is one exception to the smallness of the margins separating the men in the GC top ten. And it’s the man in first place — Torstein Træen (Bahrain-Victorious). The Norwegian went into the stage with a lead of 31 seconds over Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale); now, after Armirail was distanced on the final climb (along with the other men who catapulted up the ranking by getting into yesterday’s successful break), he leads by 2:33 ahead of Vingegaard in second place. To put that into perspective, you have to go all the way down to Mikel Landa (Soudal-QuickStep) in 22nd place on GC to find the first rider who is over 2:33 adrift of Vingegaard.
There was no fear among the GC favourites when he was allowed to take the red jersey yesterday. Træen is a talented climber, as shown from his top ten finish at the Vuelta a Burgos prior to the race, and especially his summit finish breakaway stage win at last year’s Tour de Suisse. But he’s not considered by anyone a GC threat, having never finished higher than 60th in any of his previous three Grand Tour appearances, and even in his own Bahrain-Victorious team is behind both Antonio Tiberi and Santiago Buitrago in the hierarchy.
However, all of this might be giving you a sense of déjà vu. Just two years ago, Sepp Kuss took the red jersey, having also been allowed a heap of time in a stage six breakaway. He too was considered his team’s domestique, and widely expected to give up the overall lead once the race came into its decisive GC stages. Famously, the American defied expectations, and internal challenges from his own teammates Vingegaard and Primož Roglič, to keep hold of the jersey all the way to Madrid, and win the Vuelta.
Is it too far-fetched to suggest that history could be set to repeat itself? Træen does not have the pedigree of Kuss, but he might have surprised people with the way he rode the Cerler summit finish today. He was present in the selection of about 12 riders that formed as Visma-Lease a Bike set the pace on the climb. Though he didn’t follow Almeida’s attack, neither did he go into the red, and he finished safely within the group of 15 having never been dropped by them.
Having survived this stage, Træen should be able to stay in the red jersey for a while longer yet. Tomorrow is a flat stage, while the uphill finish to round off the first week the following day should be straightforward. The first phase of the second week is then made up of a series of hilly and medium mountain stages which, if he climbs like he did today, Træen should be able to navigate.
The real test will come on stage 13, when they take on the mighty and incomparable Alto d l’Angliru. This was where Kuss nearly came undone in 2023, being dropped by both Vingegaard and Roglič on that climb’s famously steep gradients. But he just about managed to defend his lead by a slender 8 seconds, before extending his lead the following day and securing the victory. If Træen wants to dream big, he has a model to follow, and so long as no single rider seizes control of this otherwise wide open race, he can’t be ruled out.
