Date: Friday 29 August
Distance: 188km
Start location: Andorra la Vella
Finish location: Cerler
Start time: 11:55 CEST
Finish time: 17:13 CEST
If stage six status was a first taste of the Pyrenees, an initial sampling of the high mountains at this year’s Vuelta a España, stage seven is a full three course meal. That’s not to downplay how hard stage six's parcours was — with two bit category one mountains conquered and just shy of 3,500m climbed in total, it was a genuine mountain stage. But stage seven is at another level still, and one of the most demanding of the whole race. The GC race has begun in earnest, and there’s nowhere for the red jersey hopefuls to hide.
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What sets this stage apart from many of the other mountain days at this Vuelta is the amount of climbing to be done before they reach the final summit. After a short, gentle, downhill opening to the day, the difficulties begin after 13km with the ascent of the category one Port del Cantó, a relentless slog of a 24.7km climb whose average gradient over little more than 4% belies the many steep ramps up its uneven incline, and where the day's break will likely form, surely made up only of riders with good climbing legs.
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Things settle down for a little white with a downhill followed by a lengthy valley section, making up what is the easiest phase of the stage, but the final 100km of the stage are unforgiving. First comes the category two Puerto de Creu de Perves, which might only officially last 5.7km but rises steadily for a 20km before that; and then, after only a short descent, comes Coll d’Espina, a 6km effort that rises at 6.5%.
All these climbs are leading up to the main event, the Cerler mountain top finish that seems guaranteed to burst the GC race into life. It’s the kind of climb you can’t afford to wait until the final few kilometres to make moves, as it ramps up right from the bottom, and the whole road to the top is characterised by similar fluctuations in gradient. It also has a long history at the Vuelta, having featured almost annually upon first being introduced in 1987, when the likes of Tony Rominger and Pedro Delgado were among those to have won here, before falling out of favour in the 2000s. It’s typically seen no more than five GC favourites finish at the top together, and often less, with some riders managing to break clear along and gain time on everyone. We can be sure of fireworks in the race for red.
Contenders
If the race comes down to the main group, expect the main contenders to show their hand. Top names like Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers), Jai Hindley (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), and UAE Team Emirates-XRG’s João Almeida are all showing strong early form.
Other potential stage challengers include Vingegaard’s teammates Matteo Jorgenson, Ben Tulett, and Sepp Kuss, Red Bull’s Giulio Pellizzari, Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team), Israel Premier-Tech’s Marco Frigo and Matthew Riccitello, as well as Soudal-Quick-Step's Mikel Landa and Junior Lecerf, who is the Belgian's team new GC hope after Remco Evenepoel leaves at the end of the season.
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This stage could be another day for the breakaway to succeed, but with a tough opening stretch, only a strong climber is likely to make it into the initial selection. For any escape group to stand a chance, it’ll need to be made up of riders who are far enough down in the general classification to be granted some breathing room. Riders like stage six winner Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Eddie Dunbar (Jayco Alula), and Pablo Castrillo (Movistar) — all past Vuelta stage winners — fit that profile, having already lost significant time in the overall standings and are prime candidates for the day’s move.
Carlos Verona (Lidl-Trek) and Chris Harper (Jayco Alula), both stage winners at this year’s Giro d’Italia, are also in the mix. Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS Astana Team) impressed in that same race, but now sits in third on GC, which means he would be unlikely to be allowed up the road by the new red jersey leader Torstein Træen (Bahrain-Victorious).
Prediction
We think Jonas Vingegaard will win the stage from the peloton.
