Date: Tuesday, 26 August
Distance: 207km
Start location: Susa
Finish location: Voiron
Start time: 11:25 CEST
Finish time: 16:31 CEST
Is there a sight more synonymous with Grand Tour racing than the Alps? Vistas of this spectacular mountain landscapes epitomise what bike racing at this level is all about, as a way of showcasing and exploring stunning natural beauty, as well as the super-human feats of extreme physical tests that these athletes put themselves through to succeed. From the summits at the far west of the range where many of the famous battlegrounds of the Tour de France are situated, to the distinctly jagged shapes of the Dolomites in eastern Italy that play such a role at the Giro d’Italia, may of the great cycling stories over the years originate from these mountains.
Obvious geographical restrictions have prevented the Alps from featuring at the Vuelta a España, but today we’re treated to the novelty of a stage here in the foreign mountain range. Rather than make the long transfer from Italy to Spain today, the organisers have instead opted to include one last day abroad, this time in France, which the riders will enter via the natural border of the Alps. We’re used to seeing these mountains raced on during May at the Giro and July at the Tour rather than late August, but, at the end of a long summer, the weather here will still be warm and dry, with no threats of snow-induced cancellations that often affect the Giro.
Though today’s stage will, at its highest point at the top of the Col du Lautaret, reach over 2,000m in altitude, the riders will avoid any especially hard climbing. Despite only being rated category two, the Lautaret is the hardest of the day, the category three Puerto Exiles and category two Col de Montgenèvre that precede it both rising for a long time but never ramping up to too steep a gradient. And once over it, they will spend the majority of the next 80km descending, then the final 40km completing the flat run-in to the finish at Voiron, a town that, though famous for the uniquely-coloured herbal liqueur, historically made and named after the nearby monastery higher up in the surrounding Chartreuse mountains for centuries, is itself situated at low altitude in the valley.
All that makes for a cooling off period to ensure that no GC riders will be called into action, but what will it mean for the breakaway? The fact that more time is spent descending rather than ascending throughout the day could mean that any advantage gained by strong climbers trying to win the stage from the break could be neutralised, while the long flat section to the finish will benefit riders in larger rather than small groups, and potentially sound the death knell for anyone who tries their luck with an early solo move. If there’s enough of an incentive in the peloton, and any sprinters who are climbing well enough, they might even bring this back for a sprint, though that will still be a big ask after dragging themselves over almost 3,000m of climbing in the first third of the day.
Contenders
The fast finishers will be hoping things come back together so they can sprint to the finish. The likes of Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) and Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) have the fastest kick to the line.
After Lidl-Trek missed out to David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) on stage three's finish to Ceres, they might want to get rid of the more pure sprinters like Philipsen before the finish in Voiron.
Movistar's puncheurs Iván García Cortina and Orluis Aular, showed their strength on stage three and will want to survive to the finish. Another team pairing Ethan Vernon and Jake Stewart (Israel-Premier Tech) also have a shot if things come back together. As do Filippo Ganna and Ben Turner of Ineos Grenadiers.
Breakaway specialists like Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) and Victor Campenaerts (Visma-Lease a Bike) could be hard to catch if they got away in a small group.
Other riders who could gain a lot in the first third of the stage include Carlos Verona and Julien Bernard (Lidl-Trek), Finn Fisher-Black (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), and Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team), Pablo Castrillo (Movistar Team) Eddie Dunbar (Jayco Alula), Magnus Sheffield (Ineos Grenadiers) and Marco Frigo (Israel-Premier Tech).
Prediction
We think Mads Pedersen will claim his first stage of the race on stage four.
