Date: Thursday 5 September, 2024
Distance: 179.5km
Start location: Vitoria-Gasteiz
Finish location: Maeztu
Start time: 13:05 CET
Finish time (approx): 17:19 CET
It’s now been thirteen years since the Vuelta a España returned to the Basque Country, and its inclusions since have been resounding successes. The race avoided the region for over three decades from 1978, when Basque separatist protesters sabotaged the roads to force a stage through the region to be cancelled, for fear of similar disruption. There have been no such problems since the 2011 return, however, and the stages here have been characterised by huge turnouts from fans from this notoriously cycling-mad region. The Vuelta has, consequently, visited almost every year since, and even the Tour de France got in on the act last year by hosting its Grand Départ here.
Vitoria-Gasteiz hosted the second stage of the Tour de France that year (on a day when Victor Lafay surprised by triumphing from a late break, ahead of a small group led by a frustrated Wout van Aert) and will do so again for the Vuelta’s visit to the Basque Country today. This was the setting for a key battle during the Napoleonic wars, when the Duke of Wellington led an army to victory over French forces led by Napoleon’s brother Joseph Bonaparte, a couple of years before his decisive victory at Waterloo. Now, Vitoria-Gasteiz is the political capital of the Basque Country, housing its government headquarters and houses of parliament.
The city has also been a familiar departure point for the Vuelta, hosting twenty stage starts throughout the race’s history. Of those, the most recent in 2022 might be the most relevant for today’s stage, as the same Puerto de Herrera hill that will be the final climb featured then too. On that occasion, Primož Roglič’s Jumbo-Visma team set about setting the tempo on the climb, reducing the peloton to about 50 riders, before going on to win the short, uphill sprint at the finish 15km later, taking the red jersey in the process.
However, this year’s stage differs in two crucial ways. Firstly, it will have a flat finish, meaning that if any GC riders do want to attempt to gain some time, they will probably have to make their move on Puerto de Herrera. Secondly, there is a much longer distance of 45km from the summit of that climb to the finish at Maeztu. Much of those kilometres will be spent on undulating roads, so it certainly won’t be a stage for the sprinters, but neither does the terrain look hard enough to ignite the GC race; Puerto de Herrera might average a hefty 8.3%, but only for 5.6km. Instead, this will be one that punchy stage-hunters will be eager to get into the day’s break for, as the odds look good that they will be competing for the stage win.
Stage profile sourced via Vuelta website
Contenders
It's most likely that today's stage of the Vuelta will go to the breakaway. While the entire route is rolling and there's plenty of elevation to contend with, the climbs are unlikely to be steep enough to make a real difference in the general classification battle. With this in mind, we can expect a big fight to get in the breakaway at the start of the stage, especially on the climbs that the riders hit early on in the day.
There are some breakaway specialists who will likely be key protagonists in that fight for the break, namely Tour de France stage winner Victor Campenaerts of Lotto-Dstny. The Belgian rider is well-suited to this sort of rolling terrain and will see today as a chance his first stage win of this race. Kasper Asgreen is another rider to watch today for Soudal-Quick Step – he was active in the break on stage 13 and will hope to give it another shot today. Harold Tejada of Astana-Qazaqstan has also shown promising signs in breakaways so far in the Vuelta with three top-10 finishes on stages so far, but the Colombian rider will need to get away from his breakaway companions, rather than leave it to a sprint, if he wants to win.
One rider who won't have to worry if he comes to the line and is required to sprint from a small group is the Ineos Grenadiers' Jhonathan Narváez – the 27-year-old can pack a fast and powerful finish and is also adept at getting in the right breakaways. UAE Team Emirates have been active throughout this Vuelta too, and Brandon McNulty could be a good pick for the Emirati team today. Oier Lazkano is a strong option for Movistar as a rider who excels in tough stages where plenty of attacking and tactical astuteness is required. Mauro Schmid of Jayco-Alula could also have a chance at victory after the Swiss rider finished in second place on 13, proving he is in good form.
Stage 18 winners prediction
We're backing Jhonathan Narváez to take the win today for Ineos Grenadiers.
