Date: Friday, July 11
Distance: 197km
Start location: Saint-Malo
Finish location: Mûr-de-Bretagne
Start time: 12:10 CEST
Finish time: 16:39 CEST (approx.)
One of the things that sets the Tour de France apart from every other race is the sheer emotional intensity of it, as was especially pronounced the last time Mûr-de-Bretagne hosted a stage finish in 2021. Usually so taciturn and rarely demonstrative of any emotion, Mathieu van der Poel broke down in tears after he crossed the line first to both win the stage and take the yellow jersey. It wasn’t just the personal triumph he was exhibiting, but also its symbolic significance — his grandfather, the beloved Raymond Poulidor, had died only a year-and-a-half earlier, and famously, despite his illustrious cycling career, never wore the yellow jersey. Van de Poel movingly dedicated his jersey to him.
The man who succeeded Poulidor as France’s leading star was Bernard Hinault, who hails from this part of France. Proud, stubborn and bullish, Hinault was an archetypical Breton, exhibiting the attitudes this proudly independent region is associated with. With his aggressive and ruthless style of racing, Van der Poel perhaps has more in common with Hinault than his grandfather; he won that stage four years ago having already attacked the previous time up Mûr-de-Bretagne, the kind of bold, long-range move that exemplifies how this current era of cycling is harking back to the former era defined by Hinault.
This year’s stage will again feature a first ascent of Mûr-de-Bretagne before returning 15km later for the finish, but, even in the landscape of modern cycling, the smart money would appear to be on waiting for the final ascent to make your move for the stage win. The terrain throughout the day is rolling but not too challenging, with just the single category four climb to be tackled prior to the double ascent of Mûr-de-Bretagne. Historically, the victor has been decided on the final climb, with the four previous winners here, Cadel Evans (2011), Alexis Vuillermoz (2015), Dan Martin (2018) and Van der Poel, all winning that way.
Mûr-de-Bretagne is the kind of uncomplicated finish that rewards pure strength, avoiding the tactical nuances that can make winning harder for heavily marked riders. The winning attacks tend to be made earlier on up the climb, during its 10% first kilometre prior to its levelling off to 4% for the final kilometre. It’s a climb that both climbers and puncheurs can be competitive on, and the heavier Thor Hushovd (2011) and Greg Van Avermaet (2018) both managed to dig deep on it to defend the yellow jersey. And it’s hard enough for small time gaps to open up between the GC favourites, as defending champions Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Froome found out when they lost 10 and five seconds in 2015 and 2018, respectively.
Contenders
Stage seven’s summit finish atop Mûr-de-Bretagne is tailor-made for punchy climbers and aggressive GC riders. Back in the yellow jersey, Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin‑Deceuninck) remains a top favourite for stages like this — he has history at Mûr, winning atop its slopes in 2021 on the Tour's last visit.
He'll be up against the main favourite Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), who will return to his rainbow jersey after a day in the maillot jaune.
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) will be looking to bounce back after a below-par time trial, eager to silence any growing doubts about his GC credentials. He’ll be supported by Matteo Jorgenson, who’s proven capable of both supporting a leader and striking out for his own chances on terrain like this.
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step), still glowing from his dominant TT win, should be right in the mix as well. Another name gaining quiet momentum is Oscar Onley (Team Picnic PostNL), who continues to impress with maturity beyond his years. And then there’s Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-B&B Hotels), one of the revelations of this Tour. The Mûr finish comes in his home region of Normandy — extra motivation for the Frenchman to perform.
But while the GC battle is sure to ignite, the nature of the stage might tempt teams to allow a breakaway to go. UAE Team Emirates-XRG may be reluctant to control the race from start to finish on such demanding terrain, leaving the door open for a bold move from the day’s escape.
Riders like Romain Grégoire (Groupama‑FDJ), Aurélien Paret‑Peintre (Decathlon‑AG2R La Mondiale), Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor Pro Cycling), Thibau Nys (Lidl-Trek), and Ben Healy (EF Education–EasyPost) all have the characteristics to survive the climbs and finish fast. Wout van Aert (Visma) could also feature if given the freedom, though his team may prefer to back Vingegaard. Another dark horse to watch: Valentin Madouas (Groupama–FDJ), who thrives in tough one-day-style stages like this.
Prediction
We think Tadej Pogačar will win his second stage of this Tour.
