Date: Saturday, July 26
Distance: 184km
Start location: Nantua
Finish location: Pontarlier
Start time: 12:05 CEST
Finish time: 16:12 CEST
We might be done with the mountains at this year’s Tour de France, but that doesn’t mean the climbing is over. The penultimate stage of the race stays clear of the high Alpine passes, but does flirt with the foothill of the Jura Mountains that dot the border between France and Switzerland. A series of small hills and undulating roads will, over the course of this lengthy 184km stage, amount to 2,900m elevation gain — not in the same league as the mountain stages, but neither is it an insignificant amount.
The riders will set off from Nantua, a town located in Ain that’s known for its fresh-water fish and crayfish, which are used to make its signature sauce, typically served as an accompaniment to quenelles de brochet, ie pike dumplings. Foodies are in for a treat throughout the day, as from Nantua the riders travel north through Franche-Comté, the region famous for its cheese. Comté cheese is made in the many small, village-based fruitières located here, and is renowned across the world for its creamy, nutty flavours and smooth texture.
The stage will finish in Pontarlier, which 23 years ago was the site of one of the stranger days of Tour history. A group of 14 riders got up the road at the start of the day, and got a gap of multiple minutes. So far so normal, but as the stage went on the peloton simply refused to chase, with no team taking responsibility to keep them under control. The break’s lead went up and up, and they ultimately finished over half an hour ahead of the peloton, with breakaway specialist Erik Dekker winning the battle for the stage win (his fourth at the Tour), and Stuart O’Grady inheriting the yellow jersey from his Crédit Agricole teammate Jens Voigt.
UAE Team Emirates-XRG, the team defending the yellow jersey will surely keep the race more under control today, but it’s still set to be a chaotic stage. With such a strong chance of the stage win being decided by the breakaway, and so many riders and teams desperate to take something from this Tour as time runs out, there is set to be an almighty scramble as riders try to get into the day’s break. The terrain is conducive to punchers and climbers succeeding in doing so, with the day’s two hardest climbs, the Col de la Croix de la Serra (12.1km at 4.1%) and Côte de Valfin (5.7km at 4.2%) tackled within the first 50km. Expect attack after attack — and maybe even some GC men using the chaos to try to slip into the break unnoticed, to try and potentially jump some place on the overall classification. As for the stage win, whoever does manage to get into the break will have to be smart as well as strong, picking their moment among the many undulations to strike out for glory.
Contenders
With Jonathan Milan's green jersey now seemingly secured, Lidl‑Trek can shift focus to stage hunting, and stage 20’s punchy profile is fertile ground. Expect to see the likes of Quinn Simmons, Thibau Nys or Jasper Stuyven unleashed — the American champion looks in the best form of them and is suited to the chaos of a rolling finale. EF Education‑EasyPost, ever-present in the breakaway lottery, should feature too. Ben Healy has climbed his way into ninth overall and will likely ride defensively, but the American outfit boasts other weapons: Kasper Asgreen’s diesel power, Neilson Powless’s sharp sense for terrain like this and Harry Sweeney's punch.
The breakaway is sure to be busy, with many teams struggling for results at this Tour. Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Mauro Schmid (Jayco Alula), and Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) are all suited to a lumpy escape. Davide Ballerini (XDS Astana), Magnus Cort (Uno‑X Mobility), Fred Wright (Bahrain‑Victorious), and Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) bring punch. Ineos Grenadiers could throw Axel Laurence into the mix, and after Thymen Arensman's win on stage 19, spirits will be high in the team.
And then there’s Jonas Abrahamsen. Already a hero for delivering Uno‑X Mobility’s first-ever Tour stage win, just weeks after mending a fractured collarbone, he may not need to prove anything, but don’t count him out. Likewise Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor Procycling team), loves this sort of terrain. Might Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) get involved to win another stage of this Tour? Never rule him out, but it might be more likely that UAE let Jhonatan Narváez or Tim Wellens to get in the break to reward their work for the yellow jersey at this Tour.
Another key domestique at this Tour is Victor Campenaerts, who has been in the climbing form of his life in support of his Visma leader Jonas Vingegaard. Could he get another chance to go for glory himself?
Prediction
We think Quinn Simmons will get his first Tour win on the penultimate day of this year's race.
