Date: Thursday, July 24
Distance: 171.5km
Start location: Vif
Finish location: Courchevel (Col de la Loze)
Start time: 12:10 CEST
Finish time: 17:12 CEST (approx)
“I’m gone. I’m dead.” So were the words uttered by a deflated Tadej Pogačar to his team radio halfway up the mighty Col de la Loze during stage 17 of the 2023 Tour de France, shortly after he had been dropped out of the group of favourites. He might have fallen over a minute and a half away from Jonas Vingegaard in the yellow jersey in the time trial 24 hours earlier, but this was the climb that really broke him. He continued to drop further and further backwards, finishing the stage all the way down in 22nd, while up ahead Jonas Vingegaard was riding away with the yellow jersey a huge 6-45 ahead of him. Given how invincible he has looked in the years since, this climb is a humbling reminder that the Slovenian is still human.
Such drama was produced on the Col de la Loze that time that the Tour returns just two years later, albeit up a different way this time via its eastern Courchevel ascent. Even if the climb stopped at the 12km point, which averages 7.3%, it’d be among the hardest finishes at the Tour. But it keeps on going after that, continuing on and on for the next 9km, though at a shallower average of 5.5%. Then, just as the riders are reaching their limit, it perversely gets even harder, ramping up to an unbearable 11% for a kilometre, and then at over 8% for the final 3km. The summit is 2,300m above sea level, making it the Souvenir Henri Desgrange as the Tour’s highest point, and by most metrics the hardest finish of the Tour.
Today’s stage has the possibility of having the same impact as Pogačar’s capitulation two years ago, not just due to the severity of Col de la Loze, but also of what comes before it. The total number of 5,450m is a greater elevation gain than any other stage at this year’s race, and all are concentrated in three huge, Hors category Alpine summits. The final climb is preceded by the Col de la Madeleine, a 19.2km giant averaging a hefty 7.9% which has been in regular usage at the Tour since 1969, and preceded the Col de la Loze for its first appearance in 2020, when a peloton of less than 30 riders made it to the top together, including eventual stage winner Miguel Ángel López. This stage will be even harder than then, as this time they’ll also have to complete the Col du Glandon, a 21.7km slog whose average gradient of 5.1% isn’t a true reflection, obscured by a couple of brief downhill sections. There is a haul of King of the Mountains points available for climbers in contention for the polka-dot jersey, while for the GC riders, this will be a crucial test of attrition before the final, and possibly race-defining showdown on the slopes of Col de la Loze.
Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) is no stranger to making history, and with Stage 18 finishing atop the brutal Col de la Loze, he’ll likely be targeting a statement victory in yellow. He was also want to make amends for his collapse in 2023.
While Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) will want to repeat his own statement performance from 2023. He still searching for a defining moment in this year’s edition, will be eager to show he’s still got what it takes to win the maillot jaune.
Behind the top two riders, the other GC contenders will all be looking for opportunities to shake up the standings. Riders like Oscar Onley (Picnic-PostNL), Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa B&B), Florian Lipowitz and Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), Tobias Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility), Felix Gall (Decathlon Ag2r La Mondiale), and Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) have the climbing legs to challenge if they can get away from the yellow jersey group — no small feat on such a selective climb.
If the breakaway is allowed to contest the stage win, a number of pure climbers could thrive on the relentless gradients of the Col de la Loze. Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious), active throughout this Tour, could target both KOM points and the stage. Matteo Jorgenson (Visma), Ben O'Connor and Luke Plapp (Jayco-Alula), Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious), Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal-Quickstep), and Michael Storer (Tudor) all have the climbing pedigree to succeed here. Meanwhile, Simon Yates (Visma) and Thymen Arensman (Ineos Grenadiers) have shown the form to win from a break if they can get the right gap.
Prediction
We think Tadej Pogačar will win on the climb where he lost the Tour in 2023.
