In the four hours since it was posted, 1.1 million people have watched that video of Tadej Pogačar riding through the Arenberg Forest. Over 100,000 people have liked it and 100,000 have left a comment with their thoughts. The general consensus? Excitement, mixed with apprehension, and a healthy sprinkle of fear. Having a three-time Tour de France winner and the current world champion ride the hardest one-day cobbled Classic in the world? Cool. The risk of him crashing out? Not so cool.
Pogačar’s popularity and his ever-growing number of fans have stemmed from his uniquely carefree ability to have fun while winning lots of bike races. On a Tour de France rest day, for example, the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider can be seen eating a baguette or back-flipping into swimming pools. In his off-season, he’s sunbathing and eating ice cream like the rest of us. His former teammate, Finn Fisher-Black recently told Rouleur: “Tadej is just a normal guy. He's super relaxed, sometimes you just see him eat what he wants, nothing too serious, not too much pressure.” The sheer fact that Pogačar is even toying with riding Paris-Roubaix is another indicator of his jovial nature – and even if he doesn’t end up lining up in Compiègne this spring, trolling the entire cycling world with a random Instagram clip on a quiet Monday morning is pretty fun in itself.
If he does end up taking part – and winning – Pogačar, though, has the potential to achieve legendary status beyond comprehension. With his three yellow jerseys (and 17 Tour stage wins), his Giro d’Italia victory, four Il Lombardia wins, two Liège–Bastogne–Liège titles, two Strade Bianche wins, plus the World Championships and Tour of Flanders victories, the Slovenian has already written himself into the cycling history books in bold, red ink. If he was able to add a Hell of the North win to his glittering palmarès, he would be well on his way to securing all five Monuments, plus confirming, beyond any doubt, his place as the most versatile rider the sport has ever seen. For Pogačar, it seems, winning more and more editions of the Tour de France isn’t what motivates him; instead, he wants to be the best at it all.
But with the temptation of Roubaix and the opportunities that those messy, rugged cobbles offer him also comes great risk for Pogačar. Crashes happen all over the roads of Northern France every year, made even more dangerous if rain is on the weather forecast. Last year, race organisers tried to mitigate the chaos of the Arenberg Forest by adding a makeshift chicane on entry to try and dampen some of the peloton’s speed as they entered the cobbles, and they have since confirmed that, in 2025, three corners will be put in place with the aim of achieving the same effect. But regardless of the safety measures that are introduced, Roubaix is still a lottery – one tyre blowout, one rider picking the wrong line in front of you, and everything can come crashing down in an instant. For Pogačar, the stakes are high: he’s paid millions by his sponsors for Tour wins – and the Tour is the biggest stage in the world, reaching fans well beyond the cycling world – is it worth risking his season for the chance at Roubaix victory?
While he’s a generational talent, riders who take victory in the Hell of the North rarely weigh under 70 kilograms and Pogačar’s slight frame isn’t really made for the flat cobbles of Roubaix. He constantly surprises with his physical ability, but would it be wiser for Pogačar to wait until later in his career to try and tackle the cobbles? In the future, when targeting Grand Tours is beyond him, the 26-year-old could properly prepare for a Classics season – and he wouldn’t have so much to lose if it didn’t go to plan.
On the other hand, crashes can happen in any bike race. At Itzulia Basque Country last year, a sweeping right hand bend on an innocuous descent in Álava caused a crash which impacted the preparation of three Tour contenders in Jonas Vingegaard, Primož Roglič and Remco Evenepoel. There was no rain or cobbles, but the impact of the accident was catastrophic for the biggest riders in the sport. Professional cycling is an inherently risky sport, regardless of the race.
On April 4, if Pogačar lines up in Compiègne in his world champion rainbow jersey ready for a Sunday in Hell, it could be one of the most exciting days of bike racing the sport has ever seen. For Pogačar, it would be an all-or-nothing move, a roll of the dice, with high potential but high jeopardy. Will he do it? Will UAE Team Emirates-XRG let him? It seems unlikely, but if there’s one thing Tadej Pogačar’s career has taught us so far, it’s to never underestimate him, and to expect the unexpected.
