The 117th edition of Milan-Sanremo rolls out of Pavia on Saturday and into the familiar grip of late-March tension. At 298 km, Sanremo is the longest race on the professional calendar, and is often a day that is unhurried, then suddenly savage — all of it compressed into the final 25 km as the Cipressa and the Poggio take turns sharpening the conversation down to a handful of names.
For much of the modern era, the race belonged to sprinters. However, recently that chapter has been emphatically revised. The pace on the climbs has grown so ferocious in recent years that only the very best all-rounders tend to survive long enough to contest what remains. And yet the sprint still matters. The descent off the Poggio rarely leaves enough of a gap to make the Via Roma irrelevant, which means the perfect Milan-Sanremo rider is a climber who can also finish. Right now, there are two of them above everyone else – Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar. But only one of them has won the race in the past.
Contenders
Mathieu van der Poel
There is a case to be made that no rider in the modern era has suited one race quite as perfectly as Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech) suits Milan-Sanremo. The Dutchman won in 2023, helped Jasper Philipsen win in 2024, and then produced one of the great displays of controlled aggression in 2025, matching Tadej Pogačar attack for attack on the Cipressa before winning the three-up sprint on the Via Roma. He arrives here as defending champion, as a two-time winner, and in form that has already impressed at Tirreno-Adriatico. His ability to read a race and then detonate it in the right moment makes him uniquely dangerous. He knows this route, he knows what it costs, and he knows exactly what Pogačar is going to try to drop him.
Read more: The star and the cyclist: How Van der Poel balances fame and focus
Van der Poel won is second Milan-Sanremo title last year (Image: Tornanti.cc)
Tadej Pogačar
This is the one. Of the five Monuments, Milan-Sanremo is one of two Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) has not won – the other being Paris-Roubaix. He has finished fifth, fourth, third and third in successive editions — a trajectory of improvement that points clearly towards a victory that has so far kept slipping away. The problem is structural: Pogačar is not the fastest rider in a sprint from a small group, and the Cipressa and Poggio have never quite given him the separation he needs. UAE's plan is well understood — make the Cipressa as violent as possible, whittle the front group to something he can manage. Whether that is finally enough is the question the whole race turns on. There is no better-prepared rider in the peloton. There is no more motivated one either.
Read more: We are in the Pogačar-Van der Poel era, but who is more likely to win all five Monuments?
Pogačar has been getting closer to winning Milan-Sanremo (Image: Tornanti.cc)
Filippo Ganna
Few riders at this level have a more complicated relationship with Milan-Sanremo than Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers). He was second in the Via Roma sprint in 2023. He was on the Poggio in third position in 2024 before a mechanical destroyed his race on the descent. He was second again in 2025 after producing a monumental effort to follow Van der Poel and Pogačar over both climbs and then outsprint the world champion at the line. The raw material is clearly there. His ability to generate huge wattage on shallow gradients makes him a nightmare to shake on the Cipressa, and the strength to close back on even the fastest descenders means he tends to be present when it matters. The Italian is not the favourite. But he has earned the right to considered this close to being one.
Read more: Tower of power: Filippo Ganna eyes success at Milan Sanremo
Ganna was second last year (Image: Tornanti.cc)
Wout van Aert
Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) won this race in 2020 in a sprint finish that proved to be his only Monument win to date. He has been absent from the start list for two years, and what he brings back this spring is a rider who rode Tirreno-Adriatico in a manner that suggested his best form is returning at the right time. His profile is almost tailor-made for the race — powerful enough to survive a brutal Cipressa, nimble enough over the Poggio, and with a sprint that remains dangerous from a small group. The question is less about his ability and more about how close to his absolute ceiling he arrives on Saturday. If Tirreno was a sign that he is coming back, Sanremo will be the proof.
Van Aert won Milan-Sanremo in 2020 (Image: SWpix.com)
Tom Pidcock
Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) won Milano-Torino earlier this week in the kind of performance that reminded everyone what he is capable of when things go right. His profile has always made intellectual sense for this race — punchy on the climb, fearless on the descent, and exactly the kind of rider who can exploit chaos in a fractured finale. A crash at the foot of the Cipressa compromised his 2025 race entirely. He will arrive here knowing that if he stays upright and reaches the Poggio in the right position, he has the descending ability to reshape whatever group emerges and the sprint to finish it – although not one that is likely to match Van der Poel, Pogačar or Ganna.
Pidcock is vying for his first Monument victory (Image: Getty)
Other contenders
The race still carries a sprinter's route at its heart, which means the fastest finishers cannot be entirely written off if the attacks on the Cipressa and Poggio are absorbed or controlled. Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech) is the 2024 winner and arrives in a more cautious mood this spring after a difficult early season, but he remains a threat if the front group is large enough to reward finishing speed. Matthew Brennan (Visma-Lease a Bike) has had a remarkable start to 2026, winning a stage at the Tour Down Under and then Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne. At 20, he is the kind of talent whose sprint carries genuine danger in a reduced bunch, and Visma have the numbers to get him there. Another sprinter Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM Team) is in the form of his life and could challenge for the win if he hold on for a sprint on the Via Roma.
For those who want to attack and stay away rather than contest the sprint, Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ United) has been excellent this spring and is comfortable at the front of aggressive racing. Matej Mohorič (Bahrain Victorious) will always be considered here — his 2022 win on the Poggio descent remains one of the great pieces of Sanremo audacity — and Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) takes on the super-domestique role for Pogačar with the understanding that if the race falls apart in the right way, he is not without his own ambitions.
Weather adds another layer. The forecast suggests rain and slippery roads on Saturday afternoon, which is the kind of detail that could make Pidcock and Mohorič even more interesting on the Poggio descent, and could complicate the sprint calculations for everyone.
Prediction
We think Mathieu van der Poel will continue his dominance and win Milan-Sanremo for the third time.
