The Vuelta a España’s organisers have been thrown an unprecedented number of complex challenges in the past three weeks, but they can at least afford themselves a wry smile at the end of stage 18: they’re going to get the nail-bitting, head-to-head finish they dreamed of when they designed the parcours – the race, the maillot rojo, is very much still in play, and will be settled atop the fiercely steep Bola del Mundo on Saturday.
Jonas Vingegaard went into the Vuelta as the self-declared “top favourite”, but with just three days left to race – two of them mere processions for GC riders like him – the Dane’s lead of 40 seconds is slender and vulnerable. He’s got nothing like the comfortable, comprehensive advantage he and his Visma-Lease a Bike team had expected. And it’s a fifth smaller than what it was 24 hours ago.
The 18th stage’s time trial was cut from from 27.2km to 12.2km in the interest of safety, but even with less room to play with, less road to make a difference, Almeida was still able to reduce his deficit to Vingegaard. In another demonstration of how much Almeida has improved as a complete GC rider this year, the Portuguese finished the stage eight seconds behind time trial specialist and stage winner Filippo Ganna. Vingegaard was ninth, 10 seconds further back.
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It’s futile to speculate about what could have been for Almeida and the state of the GC race had the time trial in Valladolid been run over its intended 27.2km route. It’s not as simple as assuming that Almeida would have replicated his 55.7kph speed over the longer distance. Vingegaard might have ridden faster up that route’s one shallow climb, or might have finished stronger. We’ll never know. But you can be assured UAE are wondering, pondering those same what ifs. That’s cycling, though – it’s full of hypotheticals, and no race was won in one’s imagination.
Vingegaard ceded what could be precious seconds in the short TT around Valladolid.
At the risk of overblowing Vingegaard’s performance, his time trialling must be a cause of concern for him and Visma. His time in Valladolid wasn’t a disaster – far from it, he’s still in red, still in pole position, still where Almeida would prefer to be – but it was further confirmation, to go alongside his sub-par performance on the stage 5 time trial at this year’s Tour de France, that his time trialling is not at the same level as it was even just a few years ago when he was winning TTs at the Tour. Vingegaard might win this Vuelta, but he has an issue to correct if he’s ever going to win the Tour again.
In the here and now, the simple reality is the Vuelta is set for a blockbuster showdown to finish, just as the organisers craved, and just as the spectators wanted. Taking place in the mountains north of Madrid, stage 20 will see the peloton twice climb up to the Puerto de Navacerrada. On the second ascent, they continue up the rough cement track to the Bola del Mundo, 3.2km of unrelenting pain and suffering. The gradients swing out wildly to 20%, and frequently stay at 16%. It’s a barbaric way to settle a Grand Tour, but entirely just; he who tames the beast deserves to win the race.
The differences between the top-two GC favourites in the Vuelta’s previous two visits to the Bola del Mundo have been around 20-25 seconds. If those figures are replicated, Vingegaard will hold on. But on recent showing, Almeida has looked stronger, fresher and more ambitious. Vingegaard has looked tired, ever so slightly sluggish, and staunchly defensive. He might get across the line, ensuring his third Grand Tour title and the first since the Tour in 2023, but to do so he’s got to resist the inevitable and furious attacks of João Almeida. Saturday afternoon, post-siesta, don’t miss it. Fireworks are promised. The result is unpredictable. It could come down to seconds.
