Il Lombardia — the Race of the Falling Leaves — stands as cycling’s final Monument, where autumn’s fading light casts long shadows over brutal climbs and narrow roads. Its late-season place demands riders summon their last reserves, blending fatigue and ambition in a tactical battle that often decides the year’s enduring narratives. This year represents an opportunity for the record number of wins — held by Italian legend Fausto Coppi — to be equalled by a rider of similar notoriety: Tadej Pogačar.
Route
The 2025 Il Lombardia route runs 241km from Como to Bergamo, with over 4,400m of climbing. After the early ascent of Madonna del Ghisallo, the race weaves along Lake Como before hitting a punishing sequence of climbs in the Bergamo province: Roncola (up to 17%), Berbenno, Dossena, Zambla Alta, and Passo di Ganda. A fast descent to Selvino precedes a final 9km run-in, capped by a steep cobbled ramp through Bergamo. It's a relentless, tactical route — perfect for climbers with strong descending and positioning skills.
Contenders
Tadej Pogačar
The four-time Tour de France winner, two-time world champion, and double victor at the Tour of Flanders is the perennial favourite for any major race and Il Lombardia is the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider’s most profitable hunting ground, as he has come away with the last four titles on the trot. The Slovenian has turned the Race of the Falling Leaves into his personal theatre of dominance, with its hilly parcours perfectly suiting his attributes. After a commanding season at the Tour and one-day races alike, Pogačar arrives razor-sharp, driven by form and history. No one can match his punch on the climbs, so it’s hard to imagine anyone dethroning him of his crown.
Pogačar on his way to his second world title (Image: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
Remco Evenepoel
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quickstep) returns to Il Lombardia with unfinished business. The memory of his harrowing 2020 crash still lingers on the descent of the Muro di Sormano, but the Belgian has since matured into a complete rider — with a number of major wins since that day, including World Championships and Olympic road races and time trials. This is a race that suits him: long, selective, tactically complex. In Pogačar, he faces a rival who has made this Monument his own, but Evenepoel is definitely the closest to toppling the Slovenian.
Evenepoel at the Tour of Britain in September (Image: Bruce Rollinson/SWpix.com)
Tom Pidcock
Q36.5 Procycling Team’s Tom Pidcock has steadily built his palmarès across disciplines, but it’s in the long, attritional chaos of the Monuments where his class truly emerges. A natural descender, explosive on short climbs, and tactically sharp, Pidcock is perfectly suited to the twisting rhythm of Lombardia. He is racing the Monument for the first time on Saturday — last year he was going in as a favourite only to be pulled from the startlist by his former team Ineos Grenadiers. However, debut or not, he’s not starting as a dark horse, as his third place at the recent Vuelta a España and his second-place on Saturday’s Giro dell'Emilia showed, Pidcock is in the form of his life.
Pidcock came third at the Vuelta (Image: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
Isaac del Toro
Isaac del Toro has exploded onto the scene in 2025, and few young riders combine his firepower and composure. Riding for UAE Team Emirates, the same squad helmed by Pogačar, Del Toro has already notched up multiple seismic results: he won Milano‑Torino, and grabbed a stage at the Giro d’Italia — eventually finishing second overall — and claimed the Emilia title ahead of Pidcock. Including overall classification wins, the Mexican has won 14 times this season, five of those wins were in Italian one-day races since the start of September. He may still be in Pogačar’s shadow, but Del Toro is fast proving to be the next man up — perfectly suited to races like Lombardia, where strength, steep ramps and late attacks decide the outcome.
Del Toro with Pogačar at the worlds (Image: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
Paul Seixas
After an impressive third place at the European Championships, Paul Seixas (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team) cannot be underestimated going into his first tilt at a Monument. Seixas is emerging as one of the most exciting young talents in 2025 — at just 19, the Frenchman has already put up results that catch the eye. He won the Tour de l’Avenir, bagging two stage wins including a dominant final time‑trial that grabbed him the overall title. He also finished 8th overall in the Critérium du Dauphiné, despite being among the youngest riders in the WorldTour field. Then in the European Road Championships, he stunned many by taking bronze behind Pogačar and Evenepoel, proving he can mix with the very best.
Seixas at the World Championships in Rwanda (Image: Chris Auld/SWpix.com)
Other contenders
The home favourite is Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), who is well suited to this sort of race and will be supported by a strong squad including the likes of Toms Skujiņš, who thrives in attritional races. Richard Carapaz (EF Education-Easypost) is another durable rider, and after not starting September’s Vuelta, will be fresher than some coming into the final races of the year.
Likewise, some of the strongest riders at July’s Tour will be on the start line in Como, including Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and Ben O’Connor (Jayco-Alula)
Christian Scaroni (XDS Astana Team) has had an impressive late season with a win at Giro della Romagna and a fourth at the European Championships road race.
It will be intriguing to see how UAE Team Emirates-XRG use Juan Ayuso, who despite not being able to match his leader’s punch, has been in good form in the past few weeks. Saturday will likely be the Spaniard’s last race for the team before his move to Lidl-Trek.
Prediction
We think Pogačar will win his fifth consecutive Il Lombardia title.
Cover image: Luca Bettini - Pool/Getty Images
