Date: Friday, May 16
Distance: 168km
Start location: Castel di Sangro
Finish location: Tagliacozzo
Start time: 12:50 CEST
Finish time: 17:14 CEST (approx.)
In 1268, the Piani Palentini plateau near the town of Tagliacozzo was the site of a battle that would change the course of history in Southern Italy. The Germanic Hohenstaufen dynasty had formerly ruled over the Kingdom of Sicily that controlled most of southern Italy, and had designs on northern Italy too, prompting the Papacy to replace them with Charles I of Anjou. The Battle of Tagliacozzo was the Hohenstaufens’ attempt to reclaim the Kingdom, however, they were defeated, and their leader Conradin was captured and ultimately executed. The last of the line, this was to be the end of the Hohenstaufen in Italy.
Today, Tagliacozzo could see some GC contenders’ hopes for the pink jersey go the same way as the Hohenstaufens. Upon arriving in the town, the riders will climb up the Monte Bove to the village of Marsia, for what will be the first summit finish of this year’s race. This is typically the stage in which the GC first really starts to take shape, as a hierarchy among the climbers is established. Some contenders might have gone well in the time trial, and others looked good on the earlier stage climbs, but only now will we really get an idea of who among them is the strongest, while those lacking form could lose enough time to already tumble out of contention.
This year’s Giro is unusual in that today will be one of only two proper mountain top finishes. There are much bigger mountain stages to come, particularly in the final week when the race reaches the Alps, and those are still likely to be where the serious time gaps open up, but will have their effect alleviated a little by either descents or plateaus that follow their final summits. That will also heighten the significance of today’s final climb, which, though not as hard as the high Alpine passes, is still tough enough to have been designated category one — the first of the Giro. The first 9km aren’t too challenging, averaging 4.6%, but when the road then ramps up to a maximum of 13%, it’s pretty much double-digit gradients for the final 2.7km to the top.
The stage isn’t just about this one final climb. The whole day is spent travelling through the Apennine mountains, with four summits and 3,500m to be climbed in total, including the long, 21.6km slog up to Vado della Forcella two-thirds into the stage. The riders will therefore carry tired legs with them by the time they reach the steep gradients of the final climb’s last few kilometres, which should ensure selections are made between the top favourites. But a word of warning from the Battle of Tagliacozzo: the Angevin regime that replaced the Hohenstaufen was itself deposed as Kings of Sicily just 14 years later, when they were overthrown by the islanders in the Sicilian Vespers rebellion. Whatever happens today, it’s too early to draw too many conclusions.
Contenders
The first major test for the overall contenders of this Giro should see a shake-up in the GC. After a storming time trial on stage two, Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) is the best-placed GC rider on the overall classification in second place, 17 seconds behind the maglia rosa, Mads Pedersen, who is not expected to remain in the jersey after stage seven.
Roglič is the most likely to inherit the pink jersey but can he also take time on his rivals? He will be without a key mountain domestique and former winner Jai Hindley, who was forced to drop out after a crash on stage six, which also affected another important Red Bull teammate, Dani Martínez. In similar uphill tests in March's Volta a Catalunya, Roglič battled Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), who is his main rival for the overall and will be hoping for a good performance on the first mountain stage.
The 2019 Giro winner Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) will be a key contender for the stage. However, he was also caught up in the crash that ended Hindley's race, so it is not clear how that will affect him. Likewise, Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) hit the deck on stage six, but he will be hoping to compete on the stage. His brother Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike) is another threat for the first mountain stage. 2021 winner Egan Bernal is building himself into strong shape and looks set to be fighting for a good GC position over the next two weeks.
Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling Team) has quietly already positioned himself in the top 10 on GC, and after his impressive win at April's Tour of the Alps, he will be watched closely by all the other contenders. Likewise, Team Picnic PostNL's Max Poole has had an impressive start to the race and will hope to finish high up on the stage, and he will be supported by the veteran Romain Bardet, who will be looking to keep his GC bid going for as long as possible in what is his final Grand Tour.
Other contenders for the stage include David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Einer Rubio (Movistar Team) and Tom Pidcock (Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team).
Prediction
We think Primož Roglič will clinch the first mountain stage of this Giro and, in doing so move into the maglia rosa.
