Date: Sunday, May 18
Distance: 181km
Start location: Gubbio
Finish location: Siena
Start time: 13:00 CEST
Finish time: 17:12 CEST (approx.)
In recent years, the Strade Bianche classic, on which this stage in Tuscany is modelled, has become one of the hardest and most selective of the year. It’s always posed a unique, thrilling challenge due to its titular gravel roads that make up so much of the route, but, since the length was increased in 2023 by about 40km to reach in excess of 200km, the time gaps between riders have become bigger than those even found in the monuments. Both of these last two longer editions have been won by huge Tadej Pogačar solo attacks (the former notoriously 81km from the finish, absurd even by his standards), with massive winning margins of 2-44 and 1-24 ahead of the next best rider, and on each occasion only eight riders finishing within five minutes of him — more selective than even Paris-Roubaix.
Such a parcours would cause a disproportionate amount of carriage for a single stage of a Grand Tour, and so the Giro organisers have toned things down when visiting the Strade Bianche roads. Last year, they may have gone too far the other way, reducing the number of gravel sectors to just 11.6km, seven times less than the usual Strade Bianche. The GC race was neutralised, with all the pink jersey contenders finishing together in a peloton about 40-riders big, while the stage win went to Pelayo Sanchez from the breakaway. Even Pogačar, victorious on these roads just a few months before, opted not to attack.
Perhaps wanting more action this time around, the organisers have almost tripled the amount of gravel roads featured in this year’s stage, all of them concentrated within the final 70km. Each will test the riders a different way: the first undulates both up and down, challenging the riders’ ability to descend on these tricky surfaces; the next, which lasts 9.3km, their endurance; the third, their climbing legs, with the top being a category four KOM; and the final two, while much shorter, have viciously steep ramps. And the obstacles aren’t done yet, as, unlike the previous Giro gravel stage, this one will finish at the same spectacular mediaeval Piazza del Campo in Siena that hosts the finish of Strade Bianche, and the steep Via Santa Caterina uphill that leads them there.
History suggests that the gravel stage is one for the breakaway, so many stage-hunters will try to get into the day’s break. But we ought also to see developments in the GC race. The previous gravel stage this is most comparable to is from the 2021 Giro, when Egan Bernal in the pink jersey used 35km of gravel roads to attack and gain time over all his rivals, while Remco Evenepoel floundered and lost over two minutes. Even if the weather does stay dry and save them the ordeal of riding on muddy roads, the threat of crashes and mechanicals loom ominously in this terrain. This is a day where bad luck, as much as bad legs, can land a serious blow to riders’ GC ambitions.
Contenders
Prediction
We’re betting on Tom Pidcock to take the win today for Q36.5 Pro Cycling.
