Date: Friday, May 30
Distance: 166km
Start location: Biella
Finish location: Champoluc
Start time: 12:20 CEST
Finish time: 17:15 CEST (approx.)
In what is a backloaded Giro d’Italia, what are arguably the two hardest stages of the race have been saved until last. Today’s massive mountain stage in the Aosta Valley is the first of an Alpine double header, where there is plenty of scope for dramatic comebacks, late capitulations and final swings in the race for the pink jersey, before the final victory is crowned in Rome on Sunday.
Though lacking a single climb of the same fame and fearsome reputation as others during the race, today may well be the queen stage. Certainly, in terms of elevation gain, it is the hardest, the agonising total of 4,950 metres more than any other stage of this year’s race. What’s most striking about the parcours is how intense it is. Whereas the other stages with a comparable amount of climbing both exceed 200km, this one only lasts 166km. After a warm-up climb of the category three Croce Serra and valley road leading to the foot of Col Tzecore, practically every kilometre is either spent ascending or descending, with barely any flat roads in between the four remaining mountains.
The Col Tzecore sets the tone for what’s to come, in that it is very long, and at times also very steep. The first 11km aren’t exactly easy, averaging 6.7%, but it's when the road ramps up to average 10% for the final 5km that makes it a real brute of a mountain. The next climb, Col Saint-Pantaléon, doesn’t feature gradients quite so steep, but is similarly long at 16.5km, and rises implacably at an average of 7.2%. As soon as they’re done descending that, it’s back uphill again for the Col de Joux, which, rising steadily at 6.9% for 15.1km, poses much the same challenge as it. After three such huge category one monsters, the shorter (9.5km) and gentler (4.5%) final climb to Antagnod will feel merciful, but still has the capacity to hurt what will by now be exhausted riders.
The GC contenders are unlikely to wait until this final climb to make their moves. The stage is set for a chaotic, action-packed day, with a huge scramble between not only those looking to secure a high GC position, but also riders trying to win the stage from the day’s breakaway, and King of the Mountains contenders hunting the many points on offer. With so many climbs packed so closely together, it’s possible to make moves early without taking too big a risk, and hostilities to ignite with as far out as over 100km from the finish. The race could end up in absolute bits by the time they descend the final 5km to the finish in Champoluc, and there’s the capacity for enormous time gaps.
Contenders
This is a day built for the pure climbers and GC contenders, and it’s unlikely the breakaway survives unless the favourites falter or agree to a ceasefire. Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) remains in the maglia rosa, and impressively took the win on stage 17, but he showed some cracks a day earlier on stage 16, so the immense pressure of stage 19 will be the sternest test yet. The young Mexican will need to keep rivals at bay, especially with Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) breathing down his neck. The Ecuadorian thrives in the third week and will see this as a golden opportunity to launch a raid.
Also poised to strike is Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike), who remains within a minute of pink and has looked sharper as the race goes on. Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) continues to show flashes of his old brilliance but without quite being consistent enough. Perhaps the darkhorse threat is Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech). The Canadian is on a late-race surge and could well upend the current podium if his form holds.
Italian hopes remain high after a dominant stage 16 showing, and this could be the moment for Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious) to take centre stage after his young teammate Antonio Tiberi has slipped down the GC. Another rising Italian, Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), continues his steady climb up the standings and has the green light to chase a result in the high mountains now that Primož Roglič is out of the race. Keep an eye on Einer Rubio (Movistar Team) — a pure climber who’s dropped time in earlier stages but has been climbing the standings in the last week.
While the GC battle is expected to dominate, a well-timed breakaway still has a slim chance of surviving, especially if the top riders mark each other too closely. Names like Romain Bardet (Picnic-PostNL), who is determined to get a Giro stage to complete his Grand Tour set, Wout Poels (XDS-Astana), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), and David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) are all seasoned in the art of the mountain escape and could take advantage if the favourites hesitate. Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS-Astana) won’t need to target the KOM points again having amassed enough for only his teammate Christian Scaroni still mathematically capable of beating his tally, but Fortunato will still want to target a stage win after finishing second behind Scaroni on stage 16. Others who could animate the stage include Marco Frigo (Israel Premier-Tech), Filippo Zana (Jayco Alula), Nairo Quintana (Movistar) Georg Steinhauser (EF Education-EasyPost) and Carlos Verona (Lidl-Trek), the latter riding high off his stage 15 victory. But make no mistake — stage 19 is a battleground for the GC riders.Prediction
We think Giulio Pellizzari will make it back to back stage wins for Red Bull and continue his climb up the GC.
